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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/04/08 1025Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1015Z GG
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LOCATION...S MISSOURI...NW ARKANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...NCRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...HVY SNOW
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV LOOP OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SHOWS
THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER NE TX HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE TOWARD THE NE AS A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR KLIT IS ROTATING NORTHWARD INTO THE MAIN
AXIS OF A SHARPENING DEFORMATION ZONE.  THIS FEATURE IS QUITE APPARENT
WHEN CONNECTED TO A SHARP GRADIENT ON THE WV THAT EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS
N AND W LA TO KHOU.  THIS SHORTWAVE TROF HAS LEAD TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF
UVV N AND NW OF IT ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE WHERE IR TOPS ARE COOLING
QUITE WELL WITH A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE FROM SCOTT COUNTY TO FULTON
COUNTY AR.  RUC2 ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS AS A VERY STRONG -2 TO -4 AXIS OF
EPV FROM 650-500MB.  GOES SOUNDER PWS ARE AROUND .5" IN THE AREA AND CAN
BE CONFIRMED BY THE GPS NETWORK... ADDITIONALLY TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND
IR TEMPS SHOW WHERE MAX ISENTROPIC LIFT/DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING
NEAR THE -12C LEVEL FOR MAXIMUM SNOW GROWTH.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO VERY
HIGH SNOW FALL RATES (1.5-2.5"/HR) ALONG THIS AXIS AND EVENTUALLY EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO SC MO...  THIS SNOW BAND COULD ACCUMULATE VERY HIGH
TOTALS WITH THESE RATES OVER THE COMING HOURS AS THE AXIS WILL ALSO BE
VERY SLOW TO MOVE/SHIFT BECAUSE OF THE SLOW PROGRESSION NE OF THE UPPER
LOW ESPECIALLY SINCE IT HAS BEEN ELONGATED.

A SECONDARY AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE A BIT HIGHER IN ELEVATION CAN BE SEEN
NW INTO SE MO... EXTENDING FROM BARRY TO MILLER COUNTY.  THIS BAND HAS A
BIT LESS TO WORK WITH AS GOES SOUNDER PWS ARE IN THE RANGE OF .2-.3. SO
STILL CAPABLE OF 1-1.5"/HR RATES.  STILL THE TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM
ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE LINE MOST LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN
DEFORMATION ZONE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE.

PLEASE SEE GRAPHIC AT WEB ADDRESS BELOW...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3831 9237 3679 9082 3434 9420 3699 9427
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