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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/24/08 0655Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST:0630Z  SSMI:0218-0355Z  AMSU:0429Z
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LOCATION...CALIFORNIA
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ATTN WFOS...VEF...SGX...REV...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR...EKA...
ATTN RFCS...CNRFC...
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EVENT...TEMPORARY BREAK IN HEAVIEST PRECIP FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA UNTIL LOW APPROACHES A BIT LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. FOR
SOUTHERN CAL FRONTAL BAND CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...
FOR S CA...LATEST SSMI DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO SHOWED AREAL AVERAGE
RAIN RATES UP TO .2"/HR (JUST OFFSHORE OF SBA AT THAT TIME) WITH FRONTAL
BAND MOVING ACROSS S CA. WHILE THESE RATES ARE CERTAINLY NOT AS HIGH
AS EARLIER IN THE DAY OR YESTERDAY AND DESPITE THE RATHER UNENHANCED
APPEARANCE OF FRONTAL BAND IN SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL EXPECT A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH FRONTAL BAND TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CA OVERNIGHT AS JET DYNAMICS/GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL ON THE
FAVORED TERRAIN. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND GOES HIGH DENSITY UPPER
LEVEL WIND PLOT SHOW SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS CENT CA TOWARD W NV WHICH
EVENTUALLY PLACES S CA NEAR FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALSO SHOULD COME INTO PLAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF NOT FAR BEHIND. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM 850MB FLOW PLOTTED ON RECENT SSMI AND AMSU MICROWAVE
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE REVEALS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PARALLEL
FOR A GOOD DISTANCE TO OFFSHORE MOISTURE PLUME WITH 1.1-1.3" PW VALUES
BEING DIRECTED TOWARD S CA. ADDITIONALLY, 850MB VWP DATA FROM A COUPLE
OF S CA LOCATIONS WHICH INDICATE 30-55KTS OF S TO SSW LOWER LEVEL FLOW
WHICH SHOULD EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT MOISTURE RESULTING IN HIGHER RAIN
RATES AND TOTALS PARTICULARLY ON THE SOUTH AND SSW FACING SLOPES OF THE
FAVORED TERRAIN CURRENTLY AFFECTING SANTA BARBARA/VENTURA COUNTIES AND
EVENTUALLY ALL THE WAY TO SAN DIEGO COUNTY BY LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
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FOR N AND CENT CA...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT MOVING IN
BEHIND FRONTAL BAND WHICH HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF N AND CENT
CA RESULTING A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE STEADIER PRECIP. HOWEVER, WELL
DEFINED LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 38.5N 120.0W MOVING ENE AT 25-30KTS SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL RAINS BACK INTO AREA FROM AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO TO THE
AREA NW OF OAKLAND/SAN FRANCISCO WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME OF THIS
RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
CONVECTIVE BANDING SEEN IN IR LOOP. SSMI/AMSU AREAL AVERAGE RAIN RATES
ARE ONLY MAXING OUT AT .10"/HR WITH THE BANDS AROUND THE LOW BUT THEY
MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH RESOLUTION TO PICK UP ON THE PRESENCE OF SMALLER
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, SO CERTAINLY BELIEVE ACTUAL RAIN RATES
COULD BE LOCALLY SEVERAL TIMES HIGHER THAN THIS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4056 12076 3266 11622 3186 11967 4037 12502
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