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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/23/08 0750Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 0730Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...NEVADA...CALIFORNIA...
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ATTN WFOS...VEF...SGX...REV...HNX...LOX...MFR...STO...MTR...EKA...
ATTN RFCS...CNRFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW THREAT BEGINNING SATURDAY
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THAT
DRAMATIC CYCLOGENESIS HAS OCCURRED IN THE VIC 37N/139W OVER THE LAST
12-24 HRS.  SYSTEM HAS TAKEN THE FORM OF A CLASSIC COMMA CLOUD PATTERN
DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROF AND VORTICITY
CENTER NEAR 33N/138W.  SYSTEM HAS CERTAINLY CLOSED OFF AT THIS POINT AS
GOES DERIVED WINDS SHOW A CYCLONICALLY CURVED 110 KT JET STREAK AT THE
BASE OF THE TROF.  MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF
SEEMS TO HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AROUND 30N BUT THERE IS STILL A GOES DERIVED
160 KT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF THAT MAY HELP FOR A LITTLE
MORE AMPLIFICATION.
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LATEST DMSP SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS (0233-0411Z) SHOWS DRY
AIR AXIS (PW'S RANGING FROM 0.20-0.40") JUST OFFSHORE DISCUSSION AREA
FROM ABOUT 50N/134W TO 33N/122W.  THIS AXIS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING AREA OF NVA BETWEEN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS AND NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS IN THE VIC OF THE GREAT
BASIN.  FURTHER OFFSHORE, SYSTEM APPEARS AS THOUGH IT HAS TAPPED INTO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SUBTROPICAL WEST PACIFIC.  PW VALUES
WERE GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 1.00-1.25" WITH A NARROW AREA OF 1.50"
PW'S POOLED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
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SSMI RAINFALL ALGORITHM (0411Z) WAS SHOWING VERY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES OF 0.20-0.50"/HR OVER MOST OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT.  AN EVEN
MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 0.75-1.00"/HR WAS NOTED
IN AN AREA OF FAVORED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY, NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF
DRY SLOT NEAR 37.3W/138.8W.
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SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION WOULD BRING SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME. THUS WOULD THINK THAT
RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA SOMETIME IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME AND SLOWLY SPREAD
DOWN THE COAST AFTER THAT.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4168 12234 4164 12154 4113 12081 4041 12028 3979 11994
3887 11929 3873 11901 3691 11807 3571 11792 3476 11812
3443 11670 3380 11647 3304 11639 3217 11806 3325 12028
3897 12453 4034 12491 4129 12389
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