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ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/22/08 0605Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0545Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...
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ATTN WFOS...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...
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EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF GOES DERIVED 140KT JET STREAK OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY HAS HELPED TO SUPPORT A DEVELOPING AREA OF CONVECTION FROM THE
VIC OF HEZ TO NMM.  CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ROUGHLY ALONG AN
AXIS OF 85H CONVERGENCE AND THIS AXIS IS COINCIDENT WITH DEEP LAYER WIND
FLOW WHICH HAS HELPED TO ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF TRAINING.  IN ADDITION,
0Z 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WAS JUST UPSTREAM OF DISCUSSION AREA AND THIS
WAS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SOME CELL REGENERATION ON THE UPSTREAM
EDGE OF SYSTEM.
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CURRENT IR IMAGERY SHOWS BEST CELL PRESENTATION APPEARED TO BE WITH
THE CONVECTIVE CELL NOW ENTERING W COPIAH COUNTY.  THERE WERE SOME
HINTS THAT AN OVERSHOOTING TOP WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CELL AND WOULD
IMAGINE RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY IN THE 1.0-2.0"/HR RANGE.  UPSTREAM CU
FIELD THAT EXTENDS BACK TO AVOYELLES PARISH IN LA APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AND BELIEVE THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE REGENERATION SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG THIS AXIS WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TRAINING.  TO THE NE, A
RAPIDLY MOVING CONGLOMERATE OF CELLS WAS NEAR MEI AND EXTENDED EAST INTO
SUMTER AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES.  REPORTS OUT OF MEI INDICATE RAINFALL RATES
RUNNING AROUND 1.0"/HR AND THIS AGREES WELL WITH MANUAL AND AUTOMATED
SATELLITE RATES.
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APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OFF TO THE NE/ENE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME TRAINING AND CELL REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE
AND BELIEVE THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HRS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IS POSSIBLE ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM JAN TO TCL.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3348 8737 3327 8690 3280 8695 3190 8871 3125 9153 3212
9171 3319 8931
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