ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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ARZ000-OKZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/12/08 0510Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0502Z GG
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LOCATION...W AND N ARKANSAS...EXT SE OKLAHOMA...
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ATTN WFOS...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...PRIMARY TRAINING LINE
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IR LOOP SHOWS A RAPID EXPANSION AND
COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS ALONG A SW TO NW LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS N
AND W AR...THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO GOOD UVVS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHARPENING
TROF ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS/NE AND CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE LOW TO
MIDLEVELS ACROSS AR FROM STRONG SWLY FLOW.   THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS BEING FEED BY A VERY STRONG 45KT LLJ WITH HIGH PWS RANGING TO 1.2"
PER GOES SOUNDER AND GPS NETWORK.  BESIDE STRONG SWLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS...ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS ACROSS CENTRAL AR ARE ALSO HELPING
EVACUATE THE AREA FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.  CURRENT IR PICTURE SHOWS
POCKETS OF VERY COLD TOPS REACHING -65 ACROSS W AND NE AR AT THIS TIME
BUT CONTINUE TO EXPAND.  CELL MOTION VECTORS ARE SW TO NE PROVIDING
A TRAINING PROFILE FOR THE CONVECTION. RAIN FALL WILL RANGE FROM 1-2"
ALONG THE LINE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE MERGERS WILL OCCUR.
THESE MERGES WILL COME FROM A WEAKER LINE OF SHOWERS THAT EXTEND FROM
ATOKA COUNTY TO NEAR FT. SMITH...IN FACT THE MERGE LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING
ACROSS N AR.  THIS HIGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SIGNIFICANT ICING/SLEET
THAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS N/NE AR TO PAH CWA.

THOUGH GUIDANCE VALUES ARE HIGH... DORMANT GROUND WILL ABSORB LESS
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SOGGY GROUND AND URBAN STYLE FLOODING.  AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES A LINE OFF VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS S OK WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND THEN
TRACK OVER AREAS WERE THIS ROUND OF HVY PRECIP IS OCCURRING.

ALSO PLEASE SEE 0430Z SPE AND GRAPHIC AT WEB ADDRESS BELOW.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3644 9041 3483 9067 3403 9435 3473 9470 3606 9342
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