ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
OKZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/12/08 0430Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0415Z GG
.
LOCATION...S OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...TSA...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...
.
EVENT...STRONG LINE OF TRAINING CELLS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...A LINE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
KFDR TO S SEMINOLE COUNTY IS SITUATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT/TRAINING FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE
FLOODING CONCERNS.

WV LOOP SHOWS MAIN TROF BEGINNING TO DIG/ENHANCE OVER HIGH PLAINS OF
KS/NE ATTM WITH VERY STRONG POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS DIVERGING ACROSS S
OK LEADING TO FAVORABLE PERSISTENT UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE CELLS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
85H LOW IN TX THAT HAS SHIFTED LLJ MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM SWLY TO SELY
PER VWP FROM FDR...IS IS WEAK BUT IS SUFFICIENT FOR DEEPER MOISTURE FLUX.
THIS IS BEING LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
PARKED OVER THE RED RIVER THAT HAS BEEN SEEING SOME GOOD FRONTOGENETICAL
DEVELOPMENT FROM INCREASING SFC NELY FLOW ACROSS W OK AND GOOD HEIGHT
FALLS FROM THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF.  PWS/TDS ARE LOW BUT WITH GOOD
UVV FROM JET STRUCTURE AND UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT. CURRENT IR TRENDS SHOW
THIS LINE HAS TOPS THAT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED TO -65C...RAIN OF 1-1.5"
IS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LINE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO UNTIL
HEIGHT FALLS LEAD TO THE SEWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ACROSS S OK.
STILL NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS LEAD TO CELL MOTION VECTORS SUPPORTIVE
OF TRAINING ALONG A WSW TO NE LINE.   ADDITIONALLY TWO SEPARATE LINES
OF DEVELOPMENT CAN BE SEEN FROM E CHOCTAW COUNTY, OK TO NC AR... AND A
WEAKER LINE FROM ATOKA COUNTY TO JUST NE OF FT. SMITH, AR. THESE LINES
WILL LAY DOWN A GOOD AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND COULD EXPAND/MERGE WITH THE
S OK LINE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES ACROSS E OK.  FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
HIGH BUT WITH WINTER GROUND CONDITIONS...THIS KIND OF HVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO VERY SOPPY GROUNDS AND URBAN FLOODING CONCERNS...
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 3516 9644 3507 9452 3388 9617 3428 9876
.
NNNN