ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
NYZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/11/08 1505Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1445Z  JS
.
LOCATION...WESTERN NEW YORK
.
ATTN WFOS...BGM...BUF...
ATTN RFCS...NERFC...
.
EVENT...TRENDS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES TRENDS SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING
ALONG WITH THOUGHTS OF PREVIOUS SPENES MESSAGE WITH SLOW CLOUD TOP WARMING
ALTHOUGH SOME PARAMETERS STILL SUGGEST THE SNOW BAND IS MAINTAINING
DECENT INTENSITY. AN EXAMINATION OF RECENT RUC PROFILES (SYRACUSE KSYR)
THROUGH BUFKIT INDICATE MODERATE (LAKE-700MB) INSTABILITY WITH APPARENT
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH OF JUST UNDER 2KM. CLOUD TOP TEMPS OF
-26C ALSO INFERS SOME OVERSHOOTING OF INVERSION. VISIBLE IMAGERY OUT OVER
THE LAKE SHOWS MULTIPLE BANDS WHICH APPEAR TO CONVERGE OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE AND INLAND OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CAYUGA/SOUTHERN
OSWEGO COUNTIES. TRAJECTORIES AND VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE SOME FAVORABLE
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. THE ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE CONVERGING
BANDS ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME POSSIBLE OVERSHOOTING
OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IMPLIES SATELLITE ESTIMATED RATES OF AT LEAST
1.0-1.5"/HR WITH UP TO 2"/HR STILL FEASIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
OSWEGO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THE BANDS OUT OVER THE LAKE DO SEEM TO BE DRIFTING
SOUTH, VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RADAR LOOPS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOVEMENT WITH
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAND AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT, FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BELIEVE THE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE SAME REGION
(N CAYUGA/S OSWEGO). EVENTUALLY DURING THE DAY, THE BAND SHOULD WEAKEN,
BUT THE CURRENT EMPHASIS SUGGESTS A VERY SLOW PROCESS.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 4371 7841 4347 7547 4301 7565 4334 7856
.
NNNN