ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/08/08 1410Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11: 1400Z		DS
NOAA AMSU: 1126Z
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LOCATION...HAWAII...
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ATTN WFOS...HFO...
ATTN RFCS...AKRFC...
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RESENT TO INCLUDE EVENT TITLE
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EVENT...STNRY CELLS OVER ERN PART OF BIG ISLAND..POSSIBLE DVLPT OVER
CENTRAL ISLANDS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...UPPER TROF STRETCHED SW-NE ACROSS THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAINS IN PLACE..STILL PROVIDING A SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH HVY RAIN CAN OCCUR. UPSTREAM TROF ASSCD WITH LARGE
E PAC SYSTEM TO THE N IS APPROACHING THE NWRN END OF HAWAII AND ALONG
WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS TO THE E OF THE BIG ISLAND IS CAUSING SOMEWHAT OF
A CNVG EFFECT ON THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN ISLANDS. RECENT
SATL TRENDS HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASE IN LOW TOP CLOUDS ALONG THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROF WITH A FEW CELLS NOW TO -46C. SATL WINDS INDICATE SWRLY
UPPER LVL FLOW BUT SFC WINDS SHOW A NE/N WIND ACROSS OAHU/MOLOKAI/LANAI
SO THE CELLS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL ISLANDS. EVEN SO CELLS
COULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HRS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN THE
AREA. 12Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE CNVG IS NOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ISLANDS SO CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DVLP.
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OVER THE ERN SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND..CLOUD TOPS HAVE RAPIDLY COOLED
OVER THE LAST 2.5 HRS TO -47C. RECENT AMSU PASS SHOWED PW VALUES OF UP
TO 1.77" JUST E OF THE BIG ISLAND AND 1.95" NEAR 18N/149W. GOES SOUNDER
INDICATES A DRY AREA SW OF THE BIG ISLAND AND ANOTHER AREA OF 1.6-1.7"
PW'S OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS WITHIN THE UPPER TROF. SATL WINDS INDICATE
ENERLY LOW LVL WINDS S OF THE BIG ISLAND AND PHTO 12Z SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWS THIS SAME FLOW PATTERN AROUND 850MB. MANUEL SATL ESTIMATES FOR
THE PERIOD 1130Z-1400Z ARE BETWEEN 2.5-3" OVER THE VERY ERN PART OF THE
ISLAND. SEE WEB ADDRESS FOR GRAPHIC IN ABOUT 10-15 MIN.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2217 15718 1964 15382 1832 15530 2052 15791
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