ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/05/08 2040Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 2025Z  RUMINSKI
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LOCATION...MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...OKLAHOMA...
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ATTN WFOS...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...NCRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH INCREASING CONVECTION
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...STG DYNAMICS WITH UPR VORT SWEEPING
OUT OF NM ARE MEETING AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY ACRS ERN OK/WRN AR AND SW
MO FOR INCRG AREA OF CNVTN ALG FNTL BNDRY. CNVTN LINED UP ALG STG SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS FM NR KRBD NEWRD INTO SW MO NR KSGF. TD/S IN
M60S OVER SW AR AND NE TX WITH PW/S ARND 1.3" (200-300 PERCENT NORMAL)
ARE AIDING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WITH VERY DYNAMIC WIND FIELD INDIVIDUAL
CELLS ARE MVG FAST AND THIS WILL LIMIT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXCEPT IN
AREAS OF REPEAT ACTIVITY.
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FEEL THAT HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF REPEAT CNVTN WILL BE ALG FNTL BOUNDARY
FROM EXTRM NW AR NEWRD ACRS SW MO INTO E CENTRAL MO. SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS SHOWING 130KT JET HAS ROUNDED BASE OF TROF AND IS LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL TX. BEST UPR DIFFLUENCE IS OVER MOST OF MO..WHICH COUPLED WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS CREATING BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT ALG
FNTL BOUNDARY. CNVTN IS LINED UP ALMOST PARALLEL TO MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW
WHICH WILL ENHANCE TRAINING PSBLTY. ADDITIONALLY..PREFRONTAL CNVTN OVER
WRN AR (SCOTT..FRANKLIN..JOHNSON..ETC COUNTIES) EXPECTED TO LIFT/EXPAND
N INTO SRN MO AND MERGE WITH FNTL CNVTN PROVIDING BOOST TO RAINFALL TOTS.
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3 HR AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTS SHOWING ABOUT 1.5" MAX AMNT ALG AXIS FROM
DELAWARE COUNTY OK TO JASPER COUNTY MO. EXPECT GENERAL 1-2" AMNTS OVER
SW..S CENTRAL AND INTO E CENTRAL MO ALG FNTL BOUNDARY WITH LOCALIZED 2-3"
AMNTS NEXT 6 HRS OR SO WITH BULK OF THIS OCRG OVER 2-3 HR PD.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3842 9388 3831 9056 3481 9263 3502 9540
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