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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/03/08 2025Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 2000Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1218Z/1634Z NASA AMSR-E:1230Z NASA TRMM:1421Z
DMSP SSMI:1600Z/1701Z/1824Z  QUIKSCAT:1544Z
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LOCATION...HAWAII...
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ATTN WFOS...HFO...
ATTN RFCS...AKRFC...
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EVENT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE FOR FF THREAT TO
CONTINUE...BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF A LOWERING FF THREAT AFTER TODAY...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BASIC BIG PICTURE FEATURES STILL AROUND
TODAY...LIKE YESTERDAY...HOWEVER SOME SUBTLE CHANGES.  UPPER TROUGH/LOW
STILL TO THE WEST BUT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST CLOSER TO ISLANDS AND UPPER
LOW CIRCULATION A LITTLE FURTHER N/NE OF POSITION YESTERDAY.  THIS MAKING
FOR A BIT MORE INSTABILITY THAN YESTERDAY AND WITH MODERATE MOISTURE OF
MOST OF THE ISLANDS...T-STORMS/SHOWERS WILL BE/ALREADY ARE AROUND FOR
LOCAL HVY RAINS...ESPECIALLY WINDWARD PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.
MID LAT TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE DATELINE AND IT EXTENDED SOUTH TROUGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT LOW LAT TROUGH EAST AND UPPER LOW NORTHEAST AND
THIS MAY BE A SIGN OF SLIGHTLY LESS HVY SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  COMPOSITED
MICROWAVE PRECIP WATER LOOP FOR BIG PICTURE SHOWED SYSTEM'S MOISTURE
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST WAS CONTINUING TO FORCE DRY/LOW
PWS SOUTH AND SW AND WAS MAKING SLIGHT INROADS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WE SAW YESTERDAY OVER TAKING ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY HAWAII
AND MAUI.  THERE IS NOW A DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OUT NEAR 140W...STILL FAR AWAY...BUT HAVING DISTINCT WESTWARD
MOVEMENT...SO THAT FAST MOVING TRADE WINDS WILL HELP TRY TO MOVE THAT
DRYING/LOWERING PW VALUES TOWARD THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WITH THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE IN THE MID-LATITUDES AHEAD OF TROUGH NOW
EAST OF THE DATELINE...SURFACE HIGH AS PER MORNING QUIKSCAT WINDS HAD
DRIFTED A BIT NORTH PAST 18HRS TO NEAR 38N/150W AND THAT BY ITSELF CAN
HAVE THE EFFECT OF SLIGHTLY LOWERING TRADE WIND SPEEDS IN TIME.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...STILL LARGEST AREA OF WET/PRECIP PRODUCING CLOUDS
ON BIG ISLAND WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND WEAK JET PROVIDING
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE AROUND TO CONTINUE HVY RAIN...DON'T SEE
ANY THING TO CHANGE THAT IN THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF OF
THE ISLAND.  ON OAHU AND KAUAI...JET AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY REPLACED WITH
HEATING...OROGRAPHICS AND UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
MUCH BETTER TODAY...SO HVY RAIN BURSTS WILL BE AROUND... ESPECIALLY ON
WINDWARD PARTS OF THOSE ISLANDS FOR FF THREATS.
MAUI AND CENTRAL ISLANDS HAVE A COMBINATION OF BOTH AND WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PERSISTENT HVY RAIN BURSTS THAT CAN RESULT IN LOCALIZED FF
AT LEAST THRU THE AFTERNOON/DAYTIME PERIOD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2444 15733 1950 15298 1741 15568 1754 15695 2191 16064
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