ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
CAZ000-ORZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/03/08 0226Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 0200Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU: 2150Z/0030Z  DMSP SSMI:2353Z/0130Z
.
LOCATION...CALIFORNIA...OREGON...
.
ATTN WFOS...HNX...LOX...MFR...STO...MTR...PQR...EKA...
ATTN RFCS...NWRFC...CNRFC...
.
EVENT...DYNAMICS ACTING ON MOISTURE FOR LOCALIZED HVY PRECIP THRU
N CA...BUT CAN IT WORK DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CA FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WATER VAPOR CONTINUED TO SHOW GRADUAL
BUILDING OF RIDGE IN WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.  DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS CONTINUE
TO BE DARK DROPPING SE AND ON SW SIDE OF STRENGTHENING VORT APPROACHING
SW OREGON COAST.  JET MAX FROM SATELLITE WINDS IN THE 150-180KT RANGE
CENTERED FROM 53N/153W TO NORTHERN CA COAST AND NOSING JUST INLAND
TOWARD THE N SIERRAS.  DIFFLUENCE SEEN EXT NW CA INTO SW OREGON AND IT
IS THIS INSTABILITY THAT WILL HELP PRODUCE LOCAL HVY PRECIP OROGRAPHIC
MOUNTAINS/HILLS...DESPITE BEST PW MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH.  AS SAID
CENTER OF PW MOIST PLUME 44N/152W (1.0") TO 37N/136W (1.3") TO NOSING
INTO SFO/MRY BAY AREA (1.1").  DESPITE BEST MOISTURE NOT QUITE LINED UP
WITH BEST PART OF JET...MODERATE MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT HELPING
MODERATE PRECIP WORK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL CA COAST AND
INLAND INTO THE N SIERRAS.   THE TRICK FOR THIS TO HOLD SOUTH WILL BE
BEST MOISTURE ON EAST SIDE NEAR THE COAST TO DRIFT SE AS BEST DYNAMICS
DROP SE...SO THAT THE CLOSER THE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE GET TOGETHER THE
BETTER THE CHANCE THE MODERATE TO HVY PRECIP WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT
DROPS SOUTH AND SE TOWARD S CA LATER TONIGHT.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
85H/70H WINDS OVERLAYED ON LATEST MICROWAVE PW COMPOSITE EASTER PACIFIC
LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR HVY RAIN AS BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER A 1000 MILES
IN LENGTH.   BUT IF THIS SHORTENS AND BEST PW MOISTURE STAYS FAR ENOUGH
OFF THE COAST AS NW TO SE PLUME GOES MORE WESTERLY LATER TONIGHT...THAT
MAY HAVE AN INHIBITING FACTOR ON MOISTURE TRANSPORT.   WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THAT AS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP/DEEP MOISTURE WITH SYSTEM WORKS
ITS WAY TOWARD S CALIFORNIA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST ALONG WITH ANY EXCESSIVE
OUTLOOKS FOR BURN AREAS.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 4397 12344 3514 11889 3384 11891 3621 12361 4220 12663
.
NNNN