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OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/01/08 0615Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST 0545Z
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LOCATION...NW OHIO/S MICHIGAN/N INDIANA/CENT TO NE ILLINOIS
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ATTN WFOS...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
ATTN RFCS...OHRFC...NCRFC...
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EVENT...INCREASING AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST IR IMAGERY THROUGH 0545Z SHOWS
CLOUD TOP COOLING AND BANDING STRUCTURE DEVELOPING IN REGION STRETCHING
FROM JUST EAST OF ST. LOUIS TO W INDIANA TO THE NORTH OF PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT SEEN IN WATER VAPOR LOOP. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO LARGER SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN VERY DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALONG EVOLVING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS AND INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS PER ANALYSIS OF
MODEL DATA AND REGIONAL VWP DATA. LATEST SFC DATA INDICATES SFC LOW
MOVING TO THE NNE FROM W TN INTO W KY WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
WELL DEFINED ATTENDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRAILING BEHIND NEAR THE
MO/AR BORDER. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST REGION ACROSS TN/KY AND INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA TO AID IN PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WITH REGIONAL 850MB
VWP SHOWING 40-60KTS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE RECENTLY NOTED A COUPLE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW REPORTS IN METAR OBSERVATIONS FROM KDEC (DECATUR)
IN CENT IL AND KTIP (RANTOUL) AND KMTO (MATOON) IN EAST CENT IL. GIVEN
LATEST DATA AND BANDING FEATURES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BELIEVE AREA OF
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND ENCOMPASS
A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS, NORTHERN INDIANA,
NORTHWESTERN OHIO, AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT SNOW RATES TO INCREASE TO 1"/HR WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF RATES APPROACHING 2"/HR AND EVEN BRIEFLY HIGHER IN SOME OF
THE MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS. AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC WILL
BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4272 8251 4059 8576 3932 8978 4108 8959 4271 8652
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