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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/31/06 0555Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0545Z  JS
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LOCATION...WESTERN NEW YORK...
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ATTN WFOS...ALY...BUF...
ATTN RFCS...NERFC...
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EVENT...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IR LOOP FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWS
SOME CLOUD TOP WARMING WITH LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. HOWEVER
FETCH ACROSS ENTIRE LENGTH OF LAKE STILL LOOKS GREAT AND OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF BANDS STILL APPEAR WELL INTACT. IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 BANDS OUT OVER THE LAKE WHICH CONSOLIDATE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE AND OVER S CENT JEFFERSON AND
N CENT LEWIS COUNTIES. RECENT TRENDS ALSO INDICATE THE BAND HAS MOVED
SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. AN ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION WITH RECENT BUFKIT
RUC PROFILES (WATERTOWN -KART) SHOWS SOME MARGINAL CRITERIA FOR HEAVY
SNOW WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND A LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF AROUND 300
J/KG. HOWEVER LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A CAPPING
INVERSION SLIGHTLY OVER 2 KM ALONG WITH SOME FAVORABLE OMEGA/DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH FACTORS ARE ALSO PRESENT. SATELLITE CLOUD TOP TEMPS OF
AROUND -22C ALSO DO INDICATE THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SLIGHT OVERSHOOTING OF THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL. BASED ON ALL
OF THIS DATA BELIEVE ESTIMATED SNOW RATES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1-2"/HR
RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
VERY ISOLATED RATES 2-3"/HR IN THE CORE OF BAND. EXPECT SNOWS TO CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH RATES GRADUALLY LESSENING AS PER RECENT CLOUD
TOP WARMING AND THE FORECAST FOR LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS. IF
THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BAND CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR MORE,
THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE JEFFERSON/OSWEGO
BORDER AND INTO N OSWEGO COUNTY AND CENT TO S LEWIS COUNTY.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4399 7484 4371 7482 4358 7708 4382 7713
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