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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/30/08 1100Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST:1030Z  AMSU:0809Z  TRMM:0757Z
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LOCATION...HAWAII...
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ATTN WFOS...HFO...
ATTN RFCS...APRFC...
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EVENT...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW RETROGRADING ACROSS HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES-WEST WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL APPEARS
TO SHOW A BIT OF A WESTWARD DRIFT CONTINUING WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
VERY CLOSE TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN THOUGH THIS TREND HAS SLOWED
IN RECENT IMAGES. LATEST AMSU MICROWAVE DATA FROM A COUPLE OF HOURS
AGO INDICATES MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.0-1.1"
WHICH IN ITSELF DOESN'T IMPLY DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. HOWEVER AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE, LOWER EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WITHIN THE ENVIRONMENT
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY EVEN WITH
THE WARMER SATELLITE IR TOPPED CONVECTIVE CELLS. RAIN RATE DATA FROM THE
0809Z AMSU PASS SEEMS TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH THIS IDEA AS OVER .6"/HR AREAL
AVERAGE RAIN RATES ARE DEPICTED WITH VERY WARM CLOUD TOPS TO THE EAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND. RECENT TRENDS IN IR LOOP HAVE SHOWN THIS CONVECTION
SPREADING SLOWLY TO THE WEST TOWARD THE BIG ISLAND BUT THE LEADING EDGE
DOES APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING IN COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGES. AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES, WITH THE UPPER LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ISLANDS,
EXPECT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO POP UP ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ISLANDS. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TO SEE IF
IT MOVES ANY CLOSER TO THE ISLAND.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2293 15373 1795 15377 1793 16104 2287 16089
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