ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
NMZ000-AZZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/28/08 0801Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11: 0730Z		DS
NOAA AMSU: 0347Z/0528Z
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LOCATION...W NEW MEXICO...ARIZONA...
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ATTN WFOS...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...CBRFC...
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EVENT...MOD/HVY RAINS MOVING THROUGH E AZ..TWDS W NM
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE PLUME
DIRECTED SW-NE INTO S CENTRAL AZ EXTENDING INTO THE MTNS OF SE UT AND SW/W
CENTRAL CO. DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS MOISTURE PLUME HAS REDUCED AREAS OF WRN
AZ/SE CA TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIP. 06Z GOES DERIVED SATL WINDS INDICATED
A 140 KT UPPER LVL JET MAX ACROSS SE AZ INTO NW NM WHICH IS AIDING IN
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY..AZ VWPS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE 45-55KTS OF SWRLY FLOW AT 700MB AND 30-35KTS SWRLY FLOW AT
850MB. 0528Z AMSU PASS SHOWED 1.3-1.5" PW VALUES SW OF THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENN THAT ARE BEING PULLED NWD BY THE STRNG FLOW..PER 00Z SOUNDING PW AT
TUS OF 1.13". SATL WINDS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD ALIGNMENT AT ALL LVLS WITH THE
PW PLUME WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR NEWD TRANSPORT OF THE RICH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE..NOW CENTERED INTO SE/E CENTRAL AZ. THE VERY WARM CLOUD TOPS
ASSCD WITH THE MOD/HVY RAINFALL HAVE CAUSED AUTOMATED SATL TECHNIQUES
TO SEVERELY UNDERESTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE STATE OVER LONGER
TIME PERIODS BUT RECENTLY HAVE IMPROVED IN SHORT RANGE ESTIMATES. 1 HR
ESTIMATES ENDING 0715Z FROM THE HYDROESTIMATOR INDICATED 0.2-0.3" FROM
NE PIMA THROUGH S APACHE COUNTY EDGING INTO W NM WITH EMBEDDED MAXES UP
TO 0.7" OVER GRAHAM COUNTY. ANOTHER AREA 0.4-0.7" RAINFALL AMOUNTS WAS
INDICATED OVER E MARICOPA/GILA/SE YAVAPAI/S COCONINO COUNTIES. PRECIP
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS EWD INTO WRN NM BUT HAVE NOTICED
THE S/WV ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE FLOW NEAR THE CA/AZ BORDER WHICH COULD
ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES ACROSS SE AZ FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. SEE WEB ADDESS
FOR ESTIMATE GRAPHIC.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3582 11210 3555 10701 3069 10731 3116 11340
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