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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/17/08 0450Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0415Z  RUMINSKI
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LOCATION...FLORIDA...
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ATTN WFOS...MLB...TBW...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...
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EVENT...CONVECTION IN GULF WEST OF TAMPA
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CNVTN HAS BN HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING
IT TO THE COAST AS MORE STABLE AIR IS INHIBITING FACTOR (SEE KTBW
SOUNDING). ONE CNVTV BLOB THAT WAS ABOUT 175 KM W OF THE COAST QUICKLY
HAS WEAKENED WITH WARMING CLD TOPS PAST FEW HRS AND IS NOW MVG INLAND
AS STRATIFORM PRECIP MAINLY N OF KTPA.
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HOWEVER..ADL LN OF CNVTN HAS BN INCRG IN CHANNEL OF BEST INSTABILITY
AS DEPICTED IN GOES DERIVED LI/S AND AXIS OF HIGHEST PW/S. ADL SURGE
OF MOISTURE IS LIFTING N OUT OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH A SEPARATE AREA
OF CNVTN AND THE TWO ARE MERGING TOGETHER. 00Z NAM ANAL DEPICTS THE PW
FIELD PRETTY WELL..ALTHO A BIT TOO LIGHT WITH THE MOISTURE LIFTING N
NR 25N85W. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT NAM RAPIDLY WEAKENS CNVTN/PRECIP AFTER
06Z AND THIS MAY NOT OCR. WHILE UPR SUPPORT IS LIFTING TO NE AWAY FROM
CNVTN...LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS STG WITH 00Z QUIKSCAT SHOWING 30-35 KTS
OF SSE INFLOW INTO CNVTV LN FOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AND
MERGING PW PLUMES WILL ENSURE DEEP MOISTURE TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES. AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTS FOR 3 HRS ENDING 0345Z SHOWED GENERAL
2-3" AMNTS WITH CD TOPPED CNVTN IN THE GULF WHICH IS MUCH MORE THAN NAM
FOR THE PD. WHILE SIGNIFICANT CNVTN MAY NOT MAKE IT INLAND THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE THAT MORE RAINFALL WILL OCR THAN DEPICTED...MORE IN LINE
WITH GFS SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF CNVTV LN OVERNIGHT.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2893 8351 2893 8190 2730 8185 2722 8354
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