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NVZ000-CAZ000-ORZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/04/08 1357Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 1330Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1047Z DMSP SSMIS:0347Z
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LOCATION...W NEVADA...N CALIFORNIA...W OREGON...
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ATTN WFOS...REV...HNX...MFR...STO...MTR...PQR...EKA...
ATTN RFCS...NWRFC...CNRFC...
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EVENT...INTENSE PRECIP EVENT FOR A 12-18 PERIOD MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
LONGER IN SIERRAS...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MICROWAVE RAIN RATES OFFSHORE WITH
THIS SYSTEM NOW MOVING INLAND CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
AS MAX RAIN RATES FROM 1047Z AMSU PASS HAD ISOLATED INSTANTANEOUS 15KM
RESOLUTION AREAL AVERAGE RAIN RATES OF AS HIGH AS 0.85"/HR.  AND THAT BOTH
JUST NORTH AND SOUTH OF 40N ALONG FRONTAL BAND THAT WAS JUST OFFSHORE.
EXTRAPOLATION OF BACK EDGE OF HVYST PRECIP FROM LAST EVENING
SSMI/S PASS AND THIS MORNING'S AMSU PASS HAS THAT BACK EDGE TO NEAR THE N
CA/SW OREGON COAST AT 17/18Z...SO CAN EXPECT INTENSE PRECIP FAR TO MIDDLE
NORTHERN CA COAST AND POSSIBLE SW OREGON COAST AND JUST INLAND THRU AT
LEAST 18Z.  INTENSE PRECIP LIKE THIS COULD RESULT MORE IN FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT THOUGH VERY GOOD IN SHORT TERM IS NOT REAL
GOOD FOR PRODUCING INTENSE PRECIP FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME...EXCEPT IN
THE OROGRAPHIC SENSATIVE AREAS AND FOR AN EVEN LONGER PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE BIGGER OROGRAPHIC SENSATIVE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRAS.
WELL DEFINED ABNORMALLY STRONG JET ALONG WITH SHORT WAVES ALONG JET
AND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN TO THE LAT OF THE SFO BAY FROM INTENSE
LOW AT 43N/133W TO 46N/135W WILL RAPIDLY SQUEEZE OUT MODERATE PW
MOISTURE OF 1.3"/1.4" WITH FRONTAL MOISTURE PLUME.  THOUGH MODERATELY
PROGRESSIVE...ALL OTHER IMPORTANT METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS POINTING
TOWARD AN UNDER 18HR VERY INTENSE PRECIP EVENT...EXCEPT IN LARGER
OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF SIERRAS...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24HRS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4345 12229 3803 11932 3633 12297 4216 12612
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