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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/04/08 0850Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: AMSU:0525Z SSMI:0207-0243Z GOES-WEST:0830Z  JS
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LOCATION...CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN OREGON
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ATTN WFOS...SGX...REV...HNX...LOX...MFR...STO...MTR...PQR...EKA...
ATTN RFCS...NWRFC...CNRFC...
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EVENT...BIG SURGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION NOW BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO NW CA/SW OR WITH EMPHASIS TO BEGIN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES IR/WATER VAPOR CHANNELS SHOW
POWERFUL SYSTEM REALLY BEGINNING TO WRAP UP EAST OF 140W WITH COMMA SHAPE
FORMING ALONG WITH PRONOUNCED CLASSIC DARK SLOT AND DEVELOPING FIELD
OF INSTABILITY CU TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. CERTAINLY
ONE OF THE MOST NOTICEABLE FEATURES FROM A SATELLITE PERSPECTIVE IS THE
TREMENDOUS JET WITH SATELLITE DERIVED HIGH DENSITY WIND PLOT INDICATING
SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200KTS AROUND THE 250-300MB LEVEL STREAMING EAST AND
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF THE TROF. RECENT AMSU PASS FROM AROUND
05Z HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER MOISTURE BEING
ENTRAINED INTO THIS SYSTEM WITH ACTUAL VALUES RANGING FROM 1.0" TO NEARLY
1.3". WHILE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WELL DEFINED DIRECT TROPICAL
CONNECTION ESTABLISHED AT THIS TIME, BELIEVE THAT THE EXISTING MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DEVELOPING STRONG DYNAMICS/OVERALL LARGE SCALE LIFT
AND MORE FOCUSED LIFT ON THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY,
SUBTROPICAL MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALREADY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CALIFORNIA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AS PER WATER
VAPOR LOOP. ALSO NOTED IN THE 0525Z AMSU PASS WAS A DRAMATIC AND OMINOUS
INCREASE IN AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL RATES WITH CONVECTIVE LOOKING BANDS
CENTERED AROUND 40N130W(AS OF THE 05Z PASS). AREAL AVERAGE RAIN RATES
HAD INCREASED TO .75"/HR WITH A FEW PIXELS TO OVER 1"/HR.
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AFTER LOOKING AT THE CURRENT LOOP OF COMPOSITE RADAR ECHOES AND RECENT
TRENDS IN IR IMAGERY OFFSHORE SINCE THE AMSU PASS, BELIEVE THE OVERALL
AREA OF RAIN HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE TYPE BANDS
ALSO INCREASING ESPECIALLY FROM NW CA(HUMBOLDT/TRINITY/DEL NORTE COUNTIES)
WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 130W. RIGHT ON TRACK, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
INITIAL SURGE WILL IMPACT NW CA/SW OR BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE RELAYED THIS INFORMATION TO THE HPC LEAD FORECASTER
WHO WILL HAVE AN UPDATED QPF AVAILABLE AROUND 10Z. SEE ATTACHED ANNOTATED
GRAPHIC OF SATELLITE FEATURES ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN
APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4401 12372 3417 11761 3309 12075 4367 12766
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