ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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NYZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/24/07 1359Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12  1345Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION... W AND C NEW YORK...
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ATTN WFOS...BGM...BUF...
ATTN RFCS...NERFC...OHRFC...
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EVENT...LAKE EFFECT OFF ERIE AND ONTARIO...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BIG PICTURE ON WATER VAPOR SHOWED MAIN
UPPER LOW HAD REFORMED OVER QUEBEC...BUT TROUGH AND SHORT WAVES ON BACK
SIDE IN S TO SW QUAD WERE KEEPING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WSW.  LATEST SHORT
WAVE SCOOTING THRU LOWER ST LAWRENCE BUT EVEN THAT HAS A HANG BACK
TROUGH NOW JUST MOVING THRU EXT W NY.  THINK WITH THIS PASSAGE...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE DUE WESTERLY TO FORCE SNOW PLUME OFF
ERIE TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING THRU MIDDAY.  BUT BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS CAN EXPECT HVY SNOW BURSTS FROM ONE OR TWO MAIN SNOW SQUALL
BANDS GIVING 1-2 INCHES PER HR CENTERED CENTRAL ERIE THRU GENESEE COUNTY.
AND EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL WILL BE TURNING MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS
MORNING/MIDDAY IN WESTERN NY...LOWER LEVEL WINDS W/SW ALL THE WAY BACK
ACROSS MICHIGAN/N OHIO...SO ANOTHER REASON LOW LEVEL PLUME WILL BE SLOW
TO DRIFT SOUTH THIS MORNING THRU MIDDAY. AND ON TOP OF THAT...MESOSCALE
MOIST PLUME OF PW MOISTURE OVER W AND CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING HAS SOME
WEAK CONNECTION BACK ACROSS MOISTURE MAX OVER MI AND WI WHICH HAD ITS
ORIGINS BACK TO SOME OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OVER THE U.S. IN SE TEXAS.
WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON...SNOW RATES MAY NOT BE QUITE
AS HIGH AS THIS MORNING.   ON THE OTHER HAND...EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPS
OF -15 TO -18C AT DTX AND BUF RESPECTIVELY THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR
HVY SNOW WITH CLOUD TOP TEMP COLDER THAN THIS AND MOISTURE MAX NEAR BY
AS WELL IN A RELATIVE SENSE.  AND CURRENT CLOUD TOPS ARE CLOSE TO THESE
TEMPS OVER HALF OF LK ERIE THIS MORNING.
OBVIOUSLY OFF OF ONTARIO...LONGER FETCH AND LONGER TIME FOR THAT LONGER
FETCH...HVY SNOW BURSTS WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY FANNING OUT TO THE EAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR..
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4407 7516 4307 7592 4231 8010 4248 8025 4377 7897
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