ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/11/07 1929Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G11 1930Z  CK
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LOCATION...S ARIZONA...
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ATTN WFOS...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...
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EVENT...INCRG SHOWERS OVER S AZ ASSOCD WITH UPPR TROF
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IR AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN INCRG OVER S AND S CENTRAL AZ..ESP OVER PIMA/S MARICOPA/PINAL
COUNTIES. THE MOST PRONOUNCED CLOUD TOP COOLING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AND
EXPANDING NWD ACRS W PIMA AND S MARICOPA COUNTIES. LARGE SCALE VIEW
ON WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPR TROF EXTENDING FM BROAD CIRC OVER UT/CO AREA
TO SW OF S CA/BAJA. WITHIN THE TROF..WV IMAGERY ANIMATION SHOWS INCRG
MID LEVEL CIRC/VORTICITY INVOF S CA/SW AZ AREA. THE LATTER SEEMS TO BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS/INCRG SHOWER ACTIVITY.
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WITH INCRG CIRC/VORTICITY INVOF SW AZ..WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCR
FURTHER THIS AFTN. ADDITIONALLY..WV IMAGERY ANIMATION INDICATES SOME EWD
SHIFT/PIVOT OF THE VORTICITY AREA. THIS..IN CONJUCTION WITH IMPRESSIVE LL
SRLY FLOW PER VIS IMAGERY ANIMATION AND GOES STLT WINDS OVER S AZ/NM..WILL
RESULT IN AN EWD EXPANSION/MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS ACRS SRN/S CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF AZ. CURRENT VIS IMAGERY ANIMATION SHOWS CU SURGING NWD FM
MX ACRS SRN BORDER OF PIMA COUNTY.
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WITH WARM TOP NATURE OF CLOUD TOPS..IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE STLT
RAINFALL EST ATTM. HOWEVER..GIVEN THE EXPANSION/COOLING OF TOPS..ALONG
WITH INFLUENCE OF VORT..WOULD EXPECT SOME MOD TO HVY SHOWERS  OVER PARTS
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTN. DUE TO INCRGLY CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE
IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY OF CLOUDS..WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
RATES REACHING BTWN 0.25-0.5"/HR AT TIMES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3378 11125 3347 11040 3125 11088 3179 11362 3318 11325
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