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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/08/07 0840Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 0830Z  NOAA AMSU:0315Z SSMI 0338-0408Z  JS
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LOCATION...HAWAII...
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ATTN WFOS...HFO...
ATTN RFCS...APRFC...
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EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR BATCHES OF CONVECTION TO CONVERGE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE BIG ISLAND.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...POSSIBLE SHORT TERM HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AS AREAS
OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO ENHANCE AND EXPAND PARTLY DUE TO CONVERGENT
SFC FLOW AND ALSO DUE TO IMPULSE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP MOVING TO THE
ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN ISLANDS. RECENT MICROWAVE TRENDS ALONG WITH GOES
IR LOOP INDICATE WHAT IS LEFT OF OLD PRIMARY BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY EAST
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN HAS BACKED WESTWARD AND NOW IS BACK OVER
THE BIG ISLAND. PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA FROM EARLIER SSMI/AMSU PASSES
SHOWS PW VALUES WITHIN THIS ZONE OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND HAVE NOW INCREASED TO OVER 1.5". IN ADDITION TO THE EXPANDING
CLUSTERS NEAR AND OVER THE BIG ISLAND IR LOOP ALSO SHOWS CONVERGENT AND
ENHANCING CU BANDS STRETCHING WELL BACK TO THE SSW OF THE ISLAND WHICH
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OVERSPREAD THE
ISLAND FROM THE SSW. SO DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE
TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTH, THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF AND THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AXIS AND CONVERGENT CONVECTIVE BANDS TRAILING SOUTHWARD
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ISLANDS POSE AT LEAST A SHORT TERM HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT. AT THIS TIME THE BEST IR SIGNATURE FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
HAS BEEN WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING SLOWLY NE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ISLAND. HOWEVER VERY RAPID CLOUD TOP COOLING/EXPANSION
HAS ALSO OCCURRED ALONG AXIS STRETCHING FROM SW OF THE ISLAND TO NW OF
THE ISLAND. ANY MERGERS/INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THESE BATCHES OF CONVECTION
WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM HEAVY
RAINFALL EPISODE.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2300 16200 2300 15200 1700 15200 1700 16200
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