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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/06/07 0915Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 0830Z  RUMINSKI
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LOCATION...HAWAII...
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ATTN WFOS...HFO...
ATTN RFCS...AKRFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAIN WITH SLOWING FRONTAL BAND
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST TRENDS IN GOES-11 IMAGERY SHOW A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF CNVTN WITH WARMING CLD TOPS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HRS
OVER THE BIG ISLAND INDICATING A MODEST DCR IN RAIN RATES. HOWEVER...A
DCR IN FWRD SPD HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED..ESP N OF ABT 19N. THIS OCRG AS
UPR SYSTEM AS DEPICTED IN WV IMAGERY HAS BECOME ELONGATED ALG N/S AXIS
AND TAKEN ON NEUTRAL TILT. ADDITIONALLY..WEAK VORT LOBE IS DEVELOPING
NR 20N160W AND HAS SOME LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ASCD WITH IT. GOES DERIVED
LI/S ARE UNSTABLE..REACHING TO ARND -5...NR THE CENTER OF THE VORT. MID
LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO BACKING WITH THIS FTR AS SEEN WITH CLD ELEMENTS NOW
LIFTING N ACRS LANAI AND OAHU.
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LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM ABT 04Z HAS THE PW PLUME STRETCHING ACRS THE
BIG ISLAND WITH MAX VALUES IN THE 1.6-1.8" RANGE. THE PLUME HAS NARROWED
OVER THE PAST 12-24 HRS FROM THE ISLANDS SOUTH WITH THE BROADER AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE HAVING LIFTED N. HOWEVER..THE MAIN CONCERN CONTS TO
BE FOR HEAVY RAIN IF THE PLUME/FNTL BOUNDARY STALL OVER THE BIG ISLAND
AND BRINGS A PROLONGED PD OF MDT/HVY RAIN. LATEST TRENDS INDICATE THAT
CORE OF PW PLUME WITH HEAVIEST RAIN RATES WILL NUDGE JUST E OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND LEAVE MORE SHOWERY CONDS OVER THE ISLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH CNVTN IN AFTN HEATING DUE TO INSTABILITY WITH
UPR VORT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2315 15538 1885 15473 1820 15862 2236 15929
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