ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/30/07 1340Z CORRECTED*
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 1315Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1008Z  DMSP SSMI:0029Z/0240Z  QUIKSCAT:0224Z NASA AMSR-E:1010Z
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LOCATION...ARIZONA...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
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ATTN WFOS...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...CNRFC...
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EVENT...CURRENT MOISTURE PLUME AND DYNAMICS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT
HAS GIVEN HVY PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST WITH SIMILAR PATTERN...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WELL ORGANIZED MOISTURE PLUME OFFSHORE AND
TO THE SW OF CENTRAL BAJA NOT UNLIKE A SIMILAR TYPE OF PATTERNED MOISTURE
PLUME FROM EARLY DEC 1994.  PATTERNS NOT QUITE EXACTLY ALIKE AS CURRENT
CASE HAD DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT
EXCEPT FOR THAT PW VALUES ABOUT THE SAME...PLUME ORIENTED ABOUT THE SAME
AND RESULTS CAN BE SIMILAR...AT LEAST IN ARIZONA WHERE BACK IN THE 1994
CASE THERE WAS 24HR AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 4 INCHES IN THE CATALINA MOUNTAINS.
CURRENT CASE HAS LOW LEVEL LOW CLOSE TO 27N/122W OR FURTHER TO THE SE*
OF 1994 CASE AND THAT LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN REASON SOUTHERN CA UNDER THE
GUN WITH THIS EVENT AS FORCING CLOSER TO THE S CA COAST AND ALLOW BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO BE SOUTHERLY BRING 2.0" PW VALUES FROM 20N/115W
NORTHWARD TOWARD N/NW BAJA INTO S CA.  IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THIS COULD
DELAY HVYST RAIN FOR S AZ AS DON'T THINK INITIALLY THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AT 850MB FIRST FAVORABLE FOR S CA AND 700MB A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE TO TAKING BEST MOISTURE EVENTUALLY INTO S AZ.
IN ANY CASE LATEST AMSU RAIN RATES OFFSHORE S CA AT 1008Z HAD AN ISOLATED
MAX AREAL AVERAGE RAIN RATE OF 0.15"/HR AT 32N/121W AND 30.5N/124W WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS/RATES (0.05"/HR OR LESS) CLOSER TO THE COAST.  AND JUST
GOT IN THE LATEST 1010Z AMSR-E PASS AND RAIN RATE RESOLUTION OF 6KM
(MUCH BETTER THAN 16KM AMSU) WAS GIVING MAX AREAL AVERAGE INSTANTANEOUS
RAIN RATES OF 0.31"/HR AT 32N/119W AND 0.15"/HR AS CLOSE TO THE COAST
AS 33N/120W.   SO CERTAINLY A BIG CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR BURN AREAS TODAY
AS THIS TYPE OF RAIN MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INLAND.  SEE GRAPHIC
PRODUCT OF SOME MICROWAVE IMAGERY ON HOME PAGE AT ADDRESS BELOW...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3524 11985 3351 10945 3033 10940 3288 12021
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