ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/29/07 2049Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11: 2030Z	DS
NOAA AMSU: 1609Z
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LOCATION...HAWAII...
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ATTN WFOS...HFO...
ATTN RFCS...AKRFC...
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EVENT...CELLS BEGINNING TO FORM WEST OF KAUAI..POSSIBILITY FOR CELLS
AROUND MAUI/BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII LATER
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LVL VORTEX HAS
FORMED OVER HAWAII OUT OF A S/WV ALONG THE MOISTURE PLUME THAT STILL SHOWS
A THIN CONNECTION TO THE STORM IN THE NE PACIFIC. BASED ON LATEST UPPER
LVL STLT WINDS DEPICTING THE UPPER TROF OVER HAWAII..LOW DOES NOT LOOK
AS IF IT IS COMPLETELY CUTOFF FROM THE PACIFIC FLOW BUT DOES SHOW SIGNS
THAT IT IS BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF. UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE POSITIONED
OVER OR JUST S OF THE ISLAND OF MAUI AND VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWIRL
JUST W OF THE BIG ISLAND THAT IS LIKELY THE SFC LOW..PHKO CURRENTLY HAS
LOWEST SFC PRESSURE IN THE AREA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC MOISTURE
CNVG HAS INCREASED OVER THE NW/WRN SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND AND OVER ERN
MAUI IN THE LAST 2 HRS AND EXPECT WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL SEE CELLS
DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA TODAY WITH FORCING FROM UPPER LOW. LATEST AMSU
PASS SHOWED 1.4-1.6" PW VALUES AROUND THE ERN ISLANDS BUT MUCH HIGHER
PW VALUES TO THE W.
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JUST W AND SW OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI AMSU PASS SHOWED PW VALUES OF
1.8-2". PER WV IMAGERY AND AMSU PASS..LOOKS LIKE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE N PACIFIC IS ALREADY STARTING TO PULL SOME MOISTURE NEWD..AT
LEAST AT THE LOW-MID LVLS. STLT WINDS SHOWS THAT THE LOW AND MID LVL
WINDS JUST W AND SW OF THE WRN ISLANDS ARE FROM THE SW WHILE UPPER LVL
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL FROM THE NW. SO WHILE THE TOPS OF THESE
CELLS ARE BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE SE..THE STORMS THEMSELVES ARE MOVING
NEWD TWDS THE WRN ISLANDS. IR IMAGERY SHOWS WARM TOP CELLS WSW OF NIIHAU
AROUND -42C WITH VIS INDICATING INCREASING CU OVER MUCH OF KAUAI AS WELL.
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ALSO JUST S OF OAHU..VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW OFFSHORE SHOWERS FORMING
AND MOVING NWD IN THE LOW LVL FLOW. BETTER MOISTURE IS TO THE W AND SE
OF OAHU SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY PROBLEMS FROM THESE CELLS. SEE WEB
ADDRESS IN ABOUT 10 MIN FOR GRAPHIC.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2310 16128 2131 15394 1813 15468 2080 16136
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