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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/19/07 1333Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1315Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU: 0840Z NASA AMSR-E:0849Z
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LOCATION...SOUTH TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...CONVECTION HANGING AROUND EXT S TX NEXT FEW HRS...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MOISTURE EXPANDING NORTH PAST 4HRS
AND HAS MOVED ACROSS CAMERON COUNTY AND NOW AS FAR NORTH AS S WILLACY.
NASA 6KM RESOLUTION AMSR-E MICROWAVE RAIN RATES FROM 0849Z PASS OVER
THE AREA SHOWED MAX RAIN RATES OF 0.45"/HR WITH CLOUD TOP TEMP CLOSE
TO -51C.  OF COURSE YOU CAN'T JUST ASSUME THE SAME OR HIGHER RATES WITH
THOSE SAME CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE MOVED INTO EXT S TX...BUT NOW ELEMENTS
OF THE CLOUDS ARE OVERSHOOTING WITH THOSE ELEMENT AS COOL AS -56C THAT
WERE MOVING LITTLE ACROSS CAMERON COUNTY AND JUST OVER THE BORDER TO THE
SOUTH IN MEXICO...SO THOUGH MOISTURE IS GOOD...RAIN RATES MODERATE AND
CELLS COULD PERSIST IN CAMERON AND COASTAL WILLACY COUNTY ANOTHER FEW HRS
AND LIFT N/NE THIS MORNING...JUST MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE THAN
OCCASIONAL HVY NEXT FEW HRS.  BIG PICTURE HAD UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF S
BAJA AND SUBSYNOPTIC SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD ACROSS MEXICO WITH LEAD ONE
IN NE MEXICO AFFECTING EXT S TX.  SWLY FLOW AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES
OVER MEXICO WILL TRY TO SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS S TX FLOW HAS BEEN SEPARATED FROM WESTERLY
FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH AND SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
TO DISLODGE UPPER SHORT WAVE FEATURES THAT CAN LATCH ONTO DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...ESPECIALLY SINCE SHORT TERM PRECIP FORECASTS
NOT GIVING THE TYPE OF RAINS ALREADY EXPERIENCED BY CAMERON COUNTY.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2651 9696 2522 9665 2515 9794 2614 9819
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