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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/18/07 1815Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 1800Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1214Z/1350Z/1055Z DMSP SSMI:1427Z NASA AMSR-E:1124Z
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LOCATION...EXT NW CALIFORNIA...W OREGON...
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ATTN WFOS...MFR...PQR...EKA...
ATTN RFCS...NWRFC...CNRFC...
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EVENT...WARM FRONTAL RAIN WAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WAVE AND FRONT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...PW MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING EAST AND
WAS NOW CENTERED KAUAI TO 34N/140W TO 42N/127.5W.  INFLECTION POINT AT
LEAST WITH PW PLUME WAS NOW NEAR 41N/130 TO 129W...SO WARM FRONTAL RAIN
TO BE STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE AND CENTERED INTO SW AND CENTRAL OREGON
COAST AND INLAND REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MICROWAVE 15KM
AREAL INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATES GENERALLY WERE 0.10"/HR OR LESS BUT AREA
OF THAT RAIN WITH FRONTAL BAND WAS ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES WIDE...SO CERTAINLY
COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED HIGHER RATES...ESPECIALLY AS WAVE AND FRONTAL BAND
MAKE IT TO THE OREGON COAST THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT
STILL GOOD FOR FOR RAIN ENHANCEMENT AND HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 00-12Z
TIME FRAME COMPARED WITH TODAY'S 12-00Z TIME PERIOD...BUT FLY IN THE
OINTMENT FOR POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT IS CURRENT MOVEMENT OF BIG PICTURE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR LOOP. INTENSIFYING AND PROGRESSIVE
DEEPENING LOW AT 43N/174W HELPING TO DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT CURRENT TROF IN
EASTERN PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT FRONTAL BAND NEAR WEST COAST.
THIS A BIT DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND WEAKER
AMPLIFICATION WILL ALLOW STEADY PROGRESSION OF CURRENT WEATHER FRONT
AND NOT GIVE AS MUCH TIME FOR LONG DURATION HVY RAIN LIKE FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.   BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL VERY GOOD AND STILL WILL BE A
GOOD 9-15 HOURS OF STEADY MODERATE PRECIP THAT CAN BE ENHANCED BY VERY
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THRU TONIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR HEIGHTEN FF POTENTIAL.   SEE GRAPHICAL
SATELLITE ANALYSIS ON WEB PAGE AT ADDRESS BELOW...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4590 12469 4564 12193 4163 12312 4074 12510
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