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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/04/07 1619Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11: 1600Z	DS
NOAA AMSU: 1300Z	 NASA TRMM: 1143Z/1316Z
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LOCATION...HAWAII...
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ATTN WFOS...HFO...
ATTN RFCS...AKRFC...
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EVENT...HVY RAINS MOVING SLOWLY EWD
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...STLT/RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THE INFLOW
BAND THAT IS PRODUCING HVY RAINS OVER OAHU HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING EWD
OVER THE PAST 2-3 HRS. MOD/HVY RAINS ARE CLOSING IN ON THE WRN COAST OF
MOLOKAI NOW BUT GOOD NEWS IS THAT COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND HEAVIEST RAINS
SEEM TO BE SW OF OAHU/MOLOKAI AT THIS TIME. CNVTN HAS BEEN SEEN FORMING
IN THIS AREA AND WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NEWD OVER OAHU IN THE LAST 1-1.5
HRS. HOWEVER WITH ANOTHER BLOWUP OF CNVTN SEEN ON 1530Z/1600Z IMAGES
AT 20.2N/159W..CANNOT GUARANTEE THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THIS
CLUSTER OF STRENGTHENING CELLS MAY HOLD TOGETHER A LITTLE LONGER THAN
ITS PREDECESSORS AS ITS CLOUD TOPS..AT -71C ARE THE COLDEST YET SEEN IN
THE LAST 6 HRS. LATEST AMSU PASS CONFIRMS EARLIER 08Z PASS THAT SHOWED
NEAR 2" PW VALUES IN THE MAIN INFLOW BAND. CURRENT PASS GIVES PW VALUES
OF 1.9-2.05" SW OF OAHU AND AREAL AVG RAIN RATES THAT WERE GENERALLY
1-1.2"/HR WITH SOME AS HIGH AS 1.4"/HR. TRMM PASSES AT 11Z/13Z WERE MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH THEIR AREAL AVG RAIN RATES SHOWING ABOUT .5-.6"/HR BUT
THE PASSES ONLY COVERED THE CELLS TO THE N AND S..MISSING THE ISLANDS
THEMSELVES. ALSO WITH AMSUs 40KM RESOLUTION COMPARED TO TRMMs..WOULD
BE MORE INCLINED TO GO WITH THE AMSU RATES CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ALREADY SEEN IN OAHU. STLT WINDS SHOW A WEAK 60 KT JET JUST
S/SE OF THE CNVTN WHOSE LEFT EXIT REGION MAY BE HELPING TO ENHANCE THE
CELLS SW OF OAHU/MOLOKAI ISLANDS. SEE WEB ADDRESS IN ABOUT 10 MIN FOR
GRAPHIC ANALYSIS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2239 15955 2204 15851 2144 15674 2075 15716 2194 16000
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