ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/03/07 1714Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 1700Z			DS
AMSU: 1128Z/1310Z  AMSR-E: 1207Z  TRMM: 1237Z
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LOCATION...HAWAII...
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ATTN WFOS...HFO...
ATTN RFCS...AKRFC...
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EVENT...KONA LOW BEGINNING TO DROP S TWDS HAWAIIAN ISLAND
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL PAC
CURRENTLY SEEN AT 32N/164W HAS STARTED ITS PROGRESSION SWD WHERE IT IS
FORECASTED TO SIT OVER THE WRN END OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SETUP IS BEGINNING TO LOOK VERY GOOD FOR HVY RAINS IN THAT
TIME PERIOD WITH THIS CLASSIC KONA LOW PATTERN. STLT WINDS SHOW WEAK
80 KT JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF CONTAINING THE CLOSED LOW THAT
IS HELPING TO PUSH IT SWD. OVER THE ISLANDS A 100-120 KT JET IS SEEN
THAT IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED WSW-ENE BUT SHOULD TURN JUST SLIGHTLY MORE TO
SW-NE TODAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE FLOW FROM THE CLOSED LOW. ONCE THE LOW
CUTS OFF FROM THE MAIN PAC FLOW THOUGH..ANY JET DYNAMICS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISAPPEAR. AMSU/AMSR-E PASSES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING ALONG WITH CIRA
BLENDED TPW LOOP AT http://amsu.cira.colostate.edu/TPW/EPAC.htm SHOW PW
VALUES BETWEEN 1.5-1.9" ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ISLANDS WITH A SMALL DRIER
SWATH OVER HAWAII THAT IS STARTING TO ERODE NOW. TRMM PASS AT 1237Z SHOWED
WHAT THE LOWER HALF OF THE INFLOW BAND OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY HAS AS
FAR AS RAINRATES WITH AREAL AVG RATES MOSTLY BETWEEN .3-.5"/HR BUT A FEW
SMALL PIXELS SHOWED AS HIGH AS 0.85"/HR AND CNVTN HAS OBVIOUSLY INCREASED
SINCE THE TRMM PASS PER IR IMAGERY. THOUGH MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO INDICATE
MUCH RAIN FOR THE STATE TODAY..FEEL AS THOUGH JET DYNAMICS EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING SWRLY FLOW ALONG INFLOW BAND COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN ISLANDS. HEAVIEST RAINS THOUGH STILL SEEM TO BE AT
LEAST 24 HOURS OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE IF NECESSARY. SEE
WEB ADDRESS BELOW IN ABOUT 10-15 MIN FOR GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2372 16109 1999 15253 1749 15527 2084 16219
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