ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/28/07 1408Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1345Z  RUMINSKI
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...ALL OF PR IS FULLY EMBEDDED IN VERY MOIST
TROPICAL AMS WITH LATEST MICROWAVE DERIVED PW/S SHOWING 2.0-2.2". LATEST
IR TRENDS SHOW VERY CD TOPPED CNVTN (AS LOW AS -91C) NR THE CENTER OF
TD16 AND IN THE OUTER BANDING E OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE COLDEST TOPS
AND HEAVIEST RAIN RATES (AS PER MICROWAVE DERIVED VALUES) HAVE BEEN AND
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN S AND W OF THE ISLAND...THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE ONGOING FLOOD SITN THRU THE DAY. SE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AND HELP ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER S AND E FACING SLOPES.
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GOES DERIVED SATELLITE PRECIP ESTS GENERALLY SHOWING 2-3" MAX RAINFALL
AMNTS ENDING 13Z ASCD WITH COLDER CLD TOPS THAT DEVELOPED ALG SW/NE AXIS
11-12Z TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER..THESE AMNTS DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR ANY OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENTS AND SEEM TO BE A BIT TOO LIGHT GIVEN THE AMS. 3-4" MAX AMNTS
APPEAR MORE REASONABLE FOR THIS PD. SATELLITE TRENDS PAST 6 HRS SUGGEST
THAT VERY CD CLD TOPS S OF PR WILL POSE GREATEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO
SW PORTION OF PR OVER NEXT 6 HRS OR SO.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2003 6444 1713 6429 1713 6995 1989 6979
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