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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/27/07  1849Z CK
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G12  1830Z  CK
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...
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EVENT...SIGNIFICANT BUILD UP OF CNVTN S OF PUERTO RICO..SPREADING N
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...POTENTIALLY OMINOUS SET-UP FOR PUERTO RICO
IN TERMS OF VERY HVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS HAS BECOME MORE
EVIDENT SINCE THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY SINCE 14Z HAS SHOW A STEADY AND
INCREASINGLY RAPID INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CNVTN S OF PUERTO
RICO..WITH VERY COLD TOP CLOUDS ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE ISLAND. WHILE
SOME OVER THE OVERSPREAD IS CIRRUS..VIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAYERED CLOUDS
WITH MOD/HVY PRECIP HAS CROSSED THE SRN/SW COAST. WV IMAGERY ANIMATION
SHOWS THAT..WITH PUERTO RICO NOW E SIDE OF BROAD UPPR CIRC..UPPR FLOW HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED AND HAS BECOME (MORE) SWRLY OVER THE PAST 12 HRS OR
SO. THIS HAS HELPED TO CHANNEL..AND WILL CONTINUE TO CHANNEL..CONVECTIVE
CLOUD TOPS TWD AND OVER THE ISLAND.   WHAT ALSO ADDS GREAT CONCERN
TO THE SITUATION IS WIND FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS.  QUICKSCAT PASS FM
THIS MORNING..0958Z..SHOWED SERLY FLOW S OF THE ISLAND. HOWEVER..MODEL
FCSTS FOR 850MB AND 700MB SHOW THAT THE LL FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO A
MORE SRLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. THIS..COMBINED  WITH UPPR FLOW..WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASINGLY DEEP LAYERED CNVTN TO OVERSPREAD THE ISLAND. AUTOMATED
STLT ESTIMATORS CURRENTLY INDICATE THAT 3-4"PLUS HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST
3 HRS TO THE S OF PUERTO RICO.
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AS FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXTENSIVE N-S BAND OF HVY CNVTN E OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN HELD AT BAY BY SHEARING AFFECT OF WINDS
ALOFT. STLT IMAGERY ANIMATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE CASE. THUS..EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED PATCHES OF MOD/HVY RAIN..DO NOT SEE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT..AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. IT IS PSBL THAT IF THE
CNVTN INVOF/S OF PUERTO RICO EXPANDS FURTHER EWD THAT IT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL..OVERNIGHT.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 1895 6753 1894 6334 1726 6439 1714 6734
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