ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/22/07 2230Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 2215Z	DS
.
LOCATION...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...
.
ATTN WFOS...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...
.
EVENT...HVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH LA..BEGINNING TO AFFECT
MS/SW AL
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV IMAGERY SHOWS FRONTAL BNDRY AHEAD
OF A VERY DEEP TROF WITH NEARLY CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW IN ITS BASE OVER W
CENTRAL TX. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS HAS ALLOWED FOR
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF REGION NWD. WITH THE FRNT
NOW INTERACTING WITH MOISTURE LADEN CNVTN THAT HAS BEEN SURGING NWD FROM
THE GULF INTO LA/MS MUCH OF THE DAY..A PARTICULARLY VOLATILE SITUATION
HAS SET UP AS FAR AS VERY HVY RAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING. STLT
WINDS SHOWS THE UPPER LVL PATTERN IS CURRENTLY CAUSING A DIFFLUENT AREA
OVER ERN LA/S MS..WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DIRECT HEAVIEST RAINS OVER THE
NEXT 6-8 HRS ACROSS THIS PART OF THE GULF COAST. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS BEST SFC MOISTURE CNVG HAS SHIFTED EWD TO THE SE LA COAST AS
WELL WITH ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG MOISTURE CNVG SHOWN IN NW MS. CLOUD
TOPS HAVE STARTED TO RAPIDLY COOL IN THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRNT IN
NW MS..BUT THERE IS ALSO A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRNT THAT IS ALLOWING
RICH MOISTURE TO PUSH FARTHER TO THE NW THAT SEEMS TO BE ASSISTING
THESE STORMS. COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE SEEN JUST S/SW OF TERRBONNE/ST
MARY'S PARISHES IN LA WHERE TEMPS ARE AROUND -78 TO -79C AND SOME TOPS
JUST OFFSHORE ARE AS COLD AS -81C. 3 HR HYDROESTIMATOR AMOUNTS ARE AT
2.5-3" OVER ST. MARY/ST. MARTIN/ASSUMPTION PARISHES WITH A MAX OF 3.5"
OVER ST. MARY ENDING 2145Z. WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRNT IN SE LA..EXPECT TSTORMS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE/HVY
RAINS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY
FROM TERRBONNE PARISH NEWD ACROSS THE NEW ORLEANS AREA INTO S CENTRAL
MS...AND LATER IN THE NIGHT MAKING THEIR WAY INTO SW AL. SEE WEB ADDRESS
BELOW FOR 3 HR ESTIMATES AND GRAPHIC ANALYSIS IN 10-15 MIN.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 3242 9055 3213 8785 2863 8784 2886 9241
.
NNNN
 
Full Size Message Graphic

-

Full Size Estimate Graphic

-