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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/19/07 0525Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G12 0500Z  CK
NOAA AMSU:  0156Z
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LOCATION...NW FLORIDA..S ALABAMA..SE MISSISSIPPI..SE LOUISIANA
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ATTN WFOS...TAE...MOB...LIX...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...
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EVENT...NEW CNVTN DEVELOPING OVER DISCUSSION AREA
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WHILE MCS WHICH AFFECTED W FL PANHANDLE
HAS NOW DECAYED..NEWER SW-NE BANDS OF CNVTN HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACRS
SE LA THRU S MS/SW AL/W FL PANHANDLE COASTAL AREAS. WHILE THESE NEW
STMS ARE LOCATED SE OF SFC FRONT..OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THEY
ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF MAX SFC CONVERGENCE. THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS
ARE MOVG NE BUT INCRG RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY. IR AND WV IMAGERY ANIMATIONS
SHOW THAT SFC FRONT AND UPPR TROF ARE MOVE SEWD TWD THE DISCUSSION AREA
WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCRD SFC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LATER TONIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE NEWER CNVTN THAT HAS  BEEN DEVELOPING. IN
ADDITION..EXPERIMENTAL CIRA MERGED PW PRODUCT SHOWS SW-NE SUBTROPICAL
PW PLUME CONTINUING TO FEED 2"PLUS PW'S FM BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NRN
GULFMEX...SOME 200 PER CENT OF NORMAL. COINCIDENT WITH PW PLUME..WV
IMAGERY SHOWS SUBRTROPICAL WV PLUME FEEDING INTO S MS/FL PANHANDLE.
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BASED ON CURRENT STLT TRENDS AND FAVORABLE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE.. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE BANDS OF CNVTN ORGANIZE INTO ANOTHER MCS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INVOF SE MS/SW AL COAST/W FL PANHANDLE. AT
THE LEAST.. WOULD EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CELL TRAINING OVER PARTS OF
THIS AREA. AS FOR SE LA..SOME CELL TRAINING IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS
PLAQUEMINES/ST BERNARD PARISHES AS WELL.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3146 8555 3013 8599 2998 8652 2876 9100 3068 8923 3103
8796
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