ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/18/07 2316Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 2245Z	DS
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LOCATION...WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...S ALABAMA...SE MISSISSIPPI...
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ATTN WFOS...TAE...MOB...LIX...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...
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EVENT...WARMING CLOUD TOPS WITHIN MCS..BUT TAIL END MAY STILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...UP UNTIL NOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LVL FEATURES IN WV IMAGERY TO PROVIDE AN EWD PUSH TO NEARLY CONSTANT
CNVTN THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE TODAY. UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO DRIFT NWD WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROF BUT
LAST 1-2 IMAGES DO SHOW SOME SLIGHT MOVEMENT TO THE NE AS THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROF ENTERS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING..MCS HAS
BEGUN ITS COLLAPSE WITH RAINRATES DECREASING AND CLOUD TOPS WARMING. SOME
MOD RAINS ARE STILL OCCURRING INTO SW GA WITH THE -69C TOP CLUSTER THAT
BROKE OFF BUT SHOULD NOT BE A FF THREAT. ONLY CONCERN NOW IS ALONG THE
TAIL END OF THE MCS WHERE A MERGER BETWEEN THE ADVANCING LINE FROM
S MS/S AL AND THE REMAINING MCS BNDRY APPEARS IMMINENT. THIS MERGER
SHOULD OCCUR OVER S BALDWIN/ESCAMBIA/SANTA ROSA  COUNTIES WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. SOME AREAS IN THE EXTREME WRN FL PANHANDLE..SUCH OF KPNS SAW
OVER 5" OF RAINFALL TODAY SO SOILS ARE ALREADY MOIST. HYDROESTIMATOR
SHOWS THAT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 3 HRS ENDING 2245Z HAS BEEN MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED TO THE ESE OF WHERE THIS MERGER SHOULD OCCUR. 3 HR
ESTIMATE INVOF WALTON/HOLMES COUNTIES AMOUNTED TO NEAR 2.4". AUTOMATED
MAX ESTIMATES INDICATED BETWEEN 5-6" OVER THE PAST 6 HRS CONCENTRATED
ON WALTON/WASHINGTON COUNTIES SPREADING NEWD WITH 3-4" AMOUNTS INTO SW
GA. STORMS TO THE W SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS EWD BUT
WITH GOOD UPPER LVL DVG SEEN OVER EXTREME S AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE STILL
AND 2.25" PW VALUES IN THE AREA..COULD STILL SEE SOME HVY RAINS..BUT
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS WANING. HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD PERSIST IN WRN FL
PANHANDLE OVER NEXT FEW HRS. SEE WEB ADDRESS FOR 6 HR ESTIMATE GRAPHIC
ENDING 2245Z.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3157 8713 3119 8522 2946 8773 3031 8899
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