ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/17/07 1430Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1415Z  JS
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LOCATION...SW TO N CENT OKLAHOMA/S CENT TO SE KANSAS
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ATTN WFOS...TSA...ICT...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...
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EVENT...BATCHES OF STORMS ARE SET TO TRAIN ACROSS PORTIONS SW TO N CENT
OKLAHOMA AND S CENT TO SE KANSAS.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HAVE BEEN MONITORING METAR OBSERVATIONS
FROM A COUPLE OF SITES IN OKLAHOMA (PONCA CITY-KPNC AND ALTUS-KAXS) AND
NOTED THAT THE RATHER SUBTLE WARM TOP IR ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HOURLY RATES BETWEEN 1.5-2.0" THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS LIKELY OVER 2". THE FIRST CONVECTIVE IMPULSE WHICH MOVED ACROSS
N OK AND S CENT KS IS NOW PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH TRAILING END STILL
LINGERING IN OSAGE COUNTY OF N OK. THE SECOND IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HEAVY RAINS AT ALTUS IS NOW RAPIDLY APPROACHING AND APPEARS SET TO MOVE
ALONG BOUNDARY SET DOWN BY FIRST COMPLEX AND TRAIN OVER SOME OF THE SAME
SPOTS (INCLUDING PONCA CITY) AFFECTED BY THE INITIAL BATCH. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF BEST SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOW LINED UP FROM
SW TO NE FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TX TO SE KS AND COLLOCATED WITH LINEAR CELL
ORIENTATION. RECENT MOISTURE PROFILES FROM 12Z RAOB DATA/GOES SOUNDER/GPS
DATA ALL INDICATE 1.4-1.5" PW VALUES HAVE CREPT UP INTO CENT OK WITH
SOUTHERLY AND EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW CONTINUING TO ADVECT
HIGHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX/NM BORDER REGION WHICH IS LIKELY ADDING MORE
SUPPORT FOR THE SECOND CONVECTIVE WAVE WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE ENHANCED
FURTHER ON THE 1415Z GOES IMAGE. GIVEN THE OBSERVED EFFICIENCY OF THESE
CELLS AND SW TO NE ORIENTATION ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL TRAINING BELIEVE
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF N CENT OK INTO S CENT AND SE KS WILL LOCALLY
EXCEED THE APPARENT 3 HOUR COUNTY AVERAGE FFG VALUES WHICH RANGE FROM
AROUND 2.0"-2.7". AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC WILL BE AVAILABLE ON
THE INTERNET SITE LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3752 9569 3452 9824 3457 9965 3749 9732
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