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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/16/07 0025Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0015Z  JS
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LOCATION...SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
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ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...MOST OF THE CELLS WITHIN NEARLY STATIONARY WEDGE SHAPED COMPLEX
ARE SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH STRONGER AND NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED ON
SW END.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT IS NOW NOTED WITH
THE SW TO NE ORIENTED CONVECTIVE AREA AFFECTING SE TX. AS STATED ABOVE,
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP DO APPEAR TO SHOW A SLOW
WEAKENING TO MOST OF THE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COMPLEX WHICH IS
LIKELY THE STABILIZING RESULT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPREADING EASTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER THIS HAS CERTAINLY BEEN A VERY
SLOW PROCESS WITH RAIN TOTALS CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS AFFECTED
COUNTIES ALTHOUGH DEFINITELY NO LONGER AT THE RATE OF 2" OR MORE PER
HOUR. AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATING TECHNIQUES WHICH INDICATE UP
TO 4.5" ACROSS PORTIONS OF HARRIS/MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAVE BEEN AT
LEAST IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF OBSERVED TOTALS BUT DO SUSPECT THAT THEY
HAVE LIKELY UNDERESTIMATED THE ABSOLUTE MAX THERE. ALSO BELIEVE THAT
3-4" OR LOCALLY GREATER THAN 4"  HAS FALLEN FARTHER TO THE SW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FORT BEND/WALLER/AUSTIN/WHARTON/COLORADO/LAVACA COUNTIES
WITH SOME INCREASE OF ANOTHER 1" OR POSSIBLY 1.5" LIKELY IN THE NEXT
30-60 MINUTES. THIS SW FLANK OF THE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO BE THE SPOT
WITH THE MOST ACTIVE/NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT WITH NEW CELLS GENERATING AS
MOIST S AND SW INFLOW ALONG CONVERGENT INFLOW BAND DEPICTED BY TOWERING
CU INTERSECTS SOUTHWARD AND EVEN SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING SHALLOW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THE REGION OF NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT
GRADUALLY TO THE SW WHILE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE COMPLEX FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BUT GIVEN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THE
EMPHASIS HERE IS ON GRADUAL AS LIFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OBVIOUSLY
VERY CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3083 9441 2995 9405 2836 9717 2908 9775
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