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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/15/07 2205Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2145Z  JS
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LOCATION...SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
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ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...WEDGE SHAPED AREA OF CONVECTION IN DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SINCE LAST SPENES MESSAGE HAVE SEEN
ONLY SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS SE TX
WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT. ORIGINALLY THOUGH
THERE WOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MEAN FLOW TO KICK
THIS BATCH EASTWARD BUT THIS HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE PARTICULARLY FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COMPLEX. TOTALS FROM THE THREE DIFFERENT
AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATING TECHNIQUES AVAILABLE HERE RANGE FROM
2.0" TO 3.5" ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF HARRIS/MONTGOMERY COUNTIES FOR
THE PAST 2-3 HOURS WHICH GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH
OBSERVATIONS/RADAR AMOUNTS AS PER RECENT FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISSUED
BY HOUSTON. RECENT TRENDS ALSO INDICATE SOME WARMING/FRAGMENTING OF
IR/VIS CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE ORIGINAL CORE OF THE COMPLEX BUT THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS SE TX TO CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND INCREASE THE TOTALS OVER THE AFFECTED COUNTIES FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT HALF HOUR TO HOUR. CONCERN ALSO EXISTS FARTHER TO THE SW WHERE
SW END OF ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS WHARTON/AUSTIN/COLORADO
COUNTIES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS MERGING CONVERGENT CU BANDS FEED/MERGE
INTO BACK END OF COMPLEX. SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED
IN THE PAST HALF HOUR THERE WHILE OBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING
BULLSEYE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COLLOCATED OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
COMPLEX. LATEST IMAGERY THROUGH 2145Z ALSO SHOWS NEW CELLS POPPING
OVER LAVACA AND JACKSON COUNTIES AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO SW
WHARTON COUNTY SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL MERGING CELLS/HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR FOR AREAS ON THE SW FLANK OF THIS
COMPLEX. AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES DO NOT DEPICT THIS SPOT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL VERY WELL AT ALL BUT GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ACTIVITY
EXPECT THAT AT LEAST 2-3" HAS FALLEN LOCALLY THERE WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF ANOTHER 1-2" IN JUST THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3098 9494 3030 9405 2881 9616 2956 9703
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