ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/15/07 0215Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0202Z  JS
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LOCATION...NW MISSOURI/SW IOWA/N TEXAS/OKLAHOMA...
LOCATION...E KANSAS/SE NEBRASKA
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ATTN WFOS...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM N TX TO SW IA CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH 3 HOUR AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES
GENERALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE WITH POCKETS OF 2-3" ESTIMATES.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LARGEST AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATED
RAINS OF CLOSE TO 2" WITH ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 3" HAVE OCCURRED RECENTLY
FROM S CENT KS AROUND SEDGWICK/BUTLER COUNTIES TO SW IA NEAR GUTHRIE/CASS
COUNTIES. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH LINE OVER OK/N TX HAS BEGUN TO MOVE A
BIT FASTER TO THE EAST NOW GENERALLY LIMITING ESTIMATED TOTALS TO THE
1-2" RANGE. RECENT TRENDS FROM BOTH IR IMAGERY AND RADAR COMPOSITE SHOW
THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS REGION FROM NE KS INTO SW IA HAS
LESSENED SLIGHTLY ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL OCCURRING
WITH MAX RATES ESTIMATED .5"/HR TO AS HIGH AS AN ISOLATED 1"/HR WHICH
WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST. TO THE SOUTH LINE OVER SE KS SOUTHWARD
INTO EXTREME N TX APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AT LEAST FOR
THE TIME BEING WITH WELL DEFINED DIFFLUENT WEDGE SHAPE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AS LONG AS THIS LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE ANY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED TO AN INTENSE BURST OF 1-2" IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. ONE
EXCEPTION RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE OVER SE KS WHERE MESOSCALE WAVE IS
LEADING TO A BIT LONGER PERIOD OF CELL TRAINING FOR APPROXIMATE COUNTIES
OF SEDGWICK/BUTLER/HARVEY/MARION/CHASE.
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OUTLOOK...WITH MORE ENERGY DROPPING SE ACROSS NM INTO NW AND W TX AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BELIEVE ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT COULD EXPAND
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO N CENT AND POSSIBLY EVEN CENT TX WHERE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS WITH TREMENDOUS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PRESENT. ALSO
AN IMPRESSIVE TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO INTO TX WITH SCATTERED CELLS ALREADY POPPING UP OVER
PORTIONS OF SE TX TO N CENT TX IN ADVANCE OF SFC BOUNDARY/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THERMAL CONTRAST IN IR LOOP NOW SEEMS TO SHOW THE SFC
BOUNDARY/DRYLINE OVER W TX TEMPORARILY BACKING A BIT TO THE NW EVEN AS
SQUALL LINE OVER OK MOVES EASTWARD. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER N CENT TO CENT TX TO ALIGN ITSELF IN A SW
TO NE OR EVEN W TO E ORIENTATION WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A HIGHER THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4204 9588 4187 9324 3300 9775 3357 9989 3890 9685
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