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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/14/07 2120Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2115Z  JS
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LOCATION...NW MISSOURI/SW IOWA/N OKLAHOMA/CENT TO E KANSAS/SE NEBRASKA
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ATTN WFOS...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...DEVELOPING AREA OF CONVECTION WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF CELL
TRAINING IS OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER SOME SPOTS OF
RELATIVELY LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WELL ADVERTISED CONVECTIVE INITIATION
IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SWATH FROM NW OK TO SE NEB. MANY INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD INSTABILITY AND DECENT MOISTURE CHANNELED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL FORECAST PROFILES INDICATE CONVECTIVE LINE HAS
DEVELOPED IN ENVIRONMENT NEARLY PARALLEL TO MEAN FLOW WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CELL TRAINING FROM SSW TO NNE ALONG LONG AXIS
STRETCHING ALL THE WAY FROM N OK TO SE NEB AND SW IA FOR NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. LATEST GOES SOUNDER DATA ALONG WITH ANALYSIS OF SFC DEWPOINTS
BOTH REVEAL NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE
W GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LATEST RUC
INDICATES MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM LOW LEVEL(850MB) JET SHOULD CONTINUE
TO ADVECT HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THIS SAME GENERAL REGION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR EVEN
MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION. CURRENTLY, AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES
ARE GENERALLY AROUND 1" WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS HIGHER THAN THAT DURING
THE PAST HOUR PARTICULARLY FOR BETTER ENHANCEMENT IN S CENT KS AROUND
HARPER/KINGMAN COUNTIES AND ALSO FOR N CENT KS INTO SE NEB INCLUDING
APPROXIMATE AREA FROM CLOUD(KS) TO GAGE(NEB) COUNTY. ANOTHER SPOT WITH
1" AND HIGHER TOTALS EXTENDS FROM PAWNEE(NEB) COUNTY INTO EXTREME SW
IA COUNTY OF MILLS. HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT TO SEE ESTIMATES CLIMB EVEN
MORE RAPIDLY ESPECIALLY AFTER SEEING LATEST OBSERVATION FROM HUTCHINSON
KS(KHUT) WHERE NEARLY 1" FELL IN 15 MINUTES. APPARENT FFG VALUES SHOW THE
AFORMENTIONED REGION OF N CENT TO NE KS/SE NEB/SW IA IS MORE VULNERABLE
TO THIS UPCOMING SITUATION WITH LOWER VALUES PRESENT THERE DUE TO RECENT
ROUNDS OF HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4157 9650 4146 9519 3667 9733 3669 9837
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