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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/14/07 1115Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1102Z GG
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LOCATION...NW MISSOURI...NE KANSAS...SE NEBRASKA...
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ATTN WFOS...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...TRAINING/MERGING COMPLEXES
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...TWO COLD COMPLEXES HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS MORNING WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
JETS OUT OF N OK INTO C KS.  THE NORTHERN COMPLEX ACROSS NE KS HAS
BEGUN TO MERGE WITH AN AREA OF COLD TOPS NORTH OF WARM FRONT WHERE 85H
ANALYSIS USING VWP AND PROFILE NETWORK SHOWS A VERY IMPRESSIVE SPEED
CONVERGENCE FROM 50-60KT LLJ IN KS INTO 15-25KT FLOW IN NE...FOR STRONG
VERTICAL LIFT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS (HENCE COOLING IN IR).  GOOD MOISTURE
INFLUX/COLD TOPS SUPPORT SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 1-2" 3HRS (0730-1030Z)
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TOP LINE OF NE KS COUNTIES INCLUDING A 2.5" ESTIMATE
IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. ORIENTATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS BEGINNING TO SUPPORT MORE TRAINING IN A SW-NE AXIS FROM
MARSHALL COUNTY KS TO PAGE COUNTY IA.

A SECOND COMPLEX HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER N ICT CWA WITH SOME ISOLATED
NEW DEVELOPMENT BACK INTO NW OK.  THIS IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE BEING SEEN PER AFOREMENTIONED
DIFFLUENCE OF JET.  CURRENTLY COLDEST TOPS TO -65C ACROSS OTTAWA AND
SALINE COUNTIES SUPPORT STRONG RAINFALL WITH PWS OF 1.3" BEING ESTIMATED
BY GPS NETWORK... WHICH IS ABOUT 150-200 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL... AIDING
RATES OF 1-1.5"/HR.  TOTALS BY ONE CELL ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AS CELL
MOTION IS QUICK...BUT CELL MOTION VECTOR AND SSWLY TRENDING DEVELOPMENT
LEADS TO SOME TRAINING POSSIBILITIES WHERE TOTALS OF 1-2" COULD EXCEED
FFG VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND NE KS.

SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4055 9468 3863 9676 3860 9868 4053 9638
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