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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/04/07 2210Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2202Z   JS
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LOCATION...SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
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ATTN WFOS...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...STILL MONITORING SEVERAL BATCHES OF VERY SLOW MOVING CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IR LOOP OVER FAR SW TX SHOWS CLOUD TOPS
HAVE COOLED/EXPANDED IN PAST HOUR WITH SOME HINT OF ORGANIZATION INTO
A SMALL COMPLEX ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA STILL SHOW
SEVERAL SCATTERED EMBEDDED ACTIVE CELLS WITHIN THIS AREA. THE PRIMARY
CELL FROM A SATELLITE PERSPECTIVE HAS BEEN THE ONE WHICH BUILT OVER
SW PECOS COUNTY AS OUTFLOW FROM THE ORIGINAL BATCH WHICH MOVED FROM
JEFF DAVIS INTO NORTHERN BREWSTER/W PECOS COUNTY MERGED INTO IT. THIS
RESULTING LARGE CELL HAS NOW BUILT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY BORDER
INTO NORTHEASTERN BREWSTER COUNTY. AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THIS PARTICULAR BATCH MOVING SOUTHWARD
OVER PECOS COUNTY INTO BREWSTER COUNTY ARE IN THE 1.8-2.3" RANGE. ALSO
MONITORING BACKBUILDING ACTIVITY WHICH FORMED OVER NW BREWSTER COUNTY
AND HAS SINCE SLOWLY DEVELOPED BACK INTO NE PRESIDIO COUNTY. SATELLITE
ENHANCEMENT AS OF THE 2202Z IMAGE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SO EXPECT
LOCALIZED RAIN RATES TO BE AT LEAST 1.0-1.25"/HR AND CLIMBING. OVERALL
TRENDS AND DATA SUGGEST THE MORE ACTIVE CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD/SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH BREWSTER AND PRESIDIO COUNTIES TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
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FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALSO WATCHING NEARLY STATIONARY BATCH OF CELLS
FORMING ALONG SOUTHERN END OF DRY LINE ACROSS S DAWSON COUNTY WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THESE
CELLS HAVE NOT MOVED FOR NEARLY 2 HOURS BELIEVE LOCALIZED RAIN TOTALS OF
AT LEAST NEAR 3" ARE LIKELY WITH AMOUNTS POSSIBLY CLOSING IN ON 4" WITHIN
THE NEXT HALF HOUR. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MORE CELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SW FLANK OF THIS LINE SO HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY ALSO EXPAND INTO MARTIN
COUNTY AND PERHAPS EASTERN ANDREWS COUNTY IN THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3280 10159 2854 10347 2904 10534 3130 10384
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