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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/04/07 1935Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1915Z  JS
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LOCATION...SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
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ATTN WFOS...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...SLOW MOVING STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
JEFF DAVIS/PRESIDIO/BREWSTER/PECOS COUNTIES.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...ACTIVITY WHICH INITIALLY FORMED OVER
JEFF DAVIS COUNTY HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED TO THE EAST INTO THE BORDER
REGION OF JEFF DAVIS/BREWSTER/PECOS COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY
ALONG WITH LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ARE ALSO SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF N CENT PRESIDIO/N BREWSTER/W PECOS
COUNTIES. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT OF CELL MERGERS
AND THE SUBSEQUENT MORE INTENSE RAIN RATES OVER THIS AREA. OVERALL
SITUATION SHOWS AXIS OF ANALYZED SFC BASED CONVERGENCE WITH SFC TROF
DEPICTED EXTENDING RIGHT THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA. WATER VAPOR LOOPS
SHOW MID/HIGH MOISTURE PLUME AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM E PACIFIC/MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD INTO SW TX WHICH FAVORS SLOW MOVING
ACTIVITY WITH MOISTURE PLUME GIVING A BIT OF A BOOST FOR MORE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCTION. RECENT GOES SOUNDER DATA ALSO INDICATES DECENT MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WITH STORMS FORMING ALONG MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH 1.4"-1.5"
PW VALUES SHOWN JUST EAST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. BASED ON IR ENHANCEMENT AND
MOISTURE PRESENT SATELLITE ESTIMATED RATES HAD BEEN MAINLY NEAR OR JUST
OVER 1"/HR BUT LATEST IMAGE AT 1915Z SHOWS TOPS HAVE COOLED IN NORTHERN
BREWSTER COUNTY SO RAIN RATES ARE NOW ESTIMATED CLOSER TO 1.25-1.50"/HR
THERE. WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING MORE TOWERING CU AND NEWLY FORMING
CELLS OVER CENT AND SE PRESIDIO AND CENT TO S BREWSTER COUNTIES AS WELL
AS CELLS JUST TO THE EAST OVER W PECOS COUNTY BELIEVE MORE CELL MERGERS
ARE NOW ALMOST CERTAIN IN THIS REGION WHICH COULD EASILY LEAD TO 1-2"
TOTALS IN AN HOUR TO AN HOUR AND A HALF.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3142 10428 3138 10265 2893 10287 2903 10475
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