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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/04/07 1835Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST: 1815Z  JS
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LOCATION...NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA/SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
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ATTN WFOS...CHS...JAX...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...
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EVENT...SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUING FOR
PORTIONS OF SE GA/NE FL FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT IR/VIS IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A
TENDENCY FOR CELLS TO CONVERGE AND EXPAND ACROSS SE GA/NE FL WITH
AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATING TECHNIQUES SHOWING OVER 2" TO PERHAPS
GREATER THAN 3" DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FOR APPROXIMATE AREA
STRETCHING FROM WAYNE COUNTY GA TO CAMDEN COUNTY GA WHERE REPEAT COLD
TOP CELLS HAVE BEEN MOST PREVALENT. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES NEW
CELLS FORMING ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RAIN AREA FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
INTO NE FL WITH DAYTIME/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND SFC CONVERGENCE BEING
THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTING FACTORS. IN ADDITION MORE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE
OF SE GA/NE FL IS SPREADING WESTWARD AND SHOULD MERGE WITH EXISTING
INLAND ACTIVITY RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUING FOR SE GA
WHILE ALSO EXPANDING FOR NE FL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DISCUSSION AREA IN FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT BETWEEN SW-NE ORIENTED AND ELONGATED UPPER TROF AXIS OVER GULF OF
MEXICO/SOUTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGE SE OF FLORIDA. NEEDLESS TO SAY MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS EXTREMELY HIGH WITH PWS FROM RAOBS/GOES SOUNDER SHOWING
VALUES OF 2.2"-2.4" IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL EASILY
SUPPORT RAIN RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR WITH LOCALLY GREATER THAN
3"/HR POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CORES. BELIEVE ALL OF THESE FACTORS PLUS
THE DEVELOPING SATELLITE WEDGE SIGNATURE RESULTING IN THE LIKELY FOCUS
FOR CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT/TRAINING COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED RAIN TOTALS
OVER PORTIONS OF SE GA/NE FL TO BE IN THE 5-6" RANGE OR POSSIBLY EVEN
GREATER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3169 8228 3148 8075 2975 8105 2988 8261
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