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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/02/07 1413Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G12  1400Z  CK
NOAA AMSU:  1049Z
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LOCATION...CENTRAL TO N FLORIDA...SE GEORGIA...
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ATTN WFOS...MLB...TBW...JAX...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...
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EVENT...CNVTN INCRG..ESP OFFSHORE
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MICROWAVE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...NOAA AMSU ANIMATION SHOWS EXTENSIVE
AREA OF PW'S IN EXCESS OF 2" HAS SPREAD NWD ACRS FL PENINSULA TO JUST
OFF THE GA/SC COAST DURING THE PAST 12-18 HRS. THE 2"PLUS AREA EXTENDS
ALL THE WAY S AND SEWD TO S AMERICA AND THRU THE CARRIBBEAN. COMBINATION
OF NOAA AMSU AND GOES SOUNDER SHOWS MAX VALUES UP TO THE 2.3-2.6" RANGE.
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GOES STLT ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV IMAGERY AND GOES SHOWS UPPR LOW WELL
SW OF S FL. MOST SIGNIFICANT HOWEVER..IS THE STRONG UPPR LVL DIVERGENCE
OVER N FL..NO DOUBT CONTRIBUTING TO THE EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF
TSTMS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA..ESP OFFSHORE. AUTOMATED STLT ESTIMATES
INDICATE 1 HR AMOUNTS BTWN 1.5-2.5" OFFSHORE. OVERLAND..SLT IMAGERY SHOWS
THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY FM ST JOHNS TO VOLUSIA TO MARION/LAKE COUNTIES. THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVE.. LIMITING DURATION OF HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER..WITH THE INCR IN VERY COLD AND OVERSHOOTING CONVECTIVE
TOPS E OF THE AREA FM ST JOHNS TOP VOLUSIA COUNTY..WOULD EXPECT THAT THE
LL FLOW WILL STEER THE HEAVY STMS ACRS THE NE/N FL COAST. ALREADY SOME
VERY HVY CELLS ARE EVIDENT INLAND..ESP OVER VOLUSIA COUNTY. CURRENT STLT
TRENDS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TRAINING AND MERGERS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO AFTN ACRS NE/N FL COASTAL COUNTIES..AND
ADJOINING INLAND COUNTIES AS WELL.
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QUICK PEAK AT 14Z IMAGE SHOWS SEVERAL OVERSHOOTING TOPS OVER VOLUSIA
COUNTY..WITH AN APPARENT CELL MERGER OCCURRING IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES.
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AS FOR SE GA..THE CORE OF THE HVY TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN OVER FL. HOWEVER..IR
AND VIS IMAGERY DO SHOW SW-NE BAND OF MOD/HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFF
THE COAST. WITH TREND IN MICROWAVE PW IMAGERY MENTIONED ABOVE..AND NWWD
SHIFT OFFSHORE CONVECTIVE BAND..SOME MOD/HVY RAIN MAY AFFECT COASTAL GA
AS WELL DURING THE DAY.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3138 8088 2907 8041 2878 8173 2984 8284
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