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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/30/07 1310Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1245Z  RUMINSKI
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LOCATION...FLORIDA...
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ATTN WFOS...MFL...MLB...KEY...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAIN WITH UPPER VORT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...UPR VORT HAS DROPPED INTO S FL AS
LARGER SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS AMPLIFIED. MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE DIGGING
HAS TAKEN PLACE IN THE ERN/CENTRAL GULF WITH STG DRY SURGE NOTED IN WV
IMAGERY. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF VORT OVER S FL HAS SLOWED OVER PAST SEVERAL
HRS AND RESULTED IN MIAMI DADE..BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES BEING IN
A RELATIVE PIVOT POINT FOR CIRC. ATTENDANT CNVTN IS TAPPING INTO NRN EDGE
OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH GOES DERIVED AND MICROWAVE PW/S SHOWING 2" AMNTS
OFF THE ATLC COAST. GOES DERIVED LI/S ALSO SHOWING BROAD AREA OF -4 TO
-6 OVER THE WRN GULF AND SW FL THAT SHOULD AID IN CONTG TO SUPPORT CONVTN.
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CLD TOP TEMPS PAST 1-2 HRS HAVE BEEN WARMING INDICATING SLACKENING
RAIN RATES. HOWEVER..VIS IMAGERY SHOWING SOME EMBEDDED ACTV CELLS WITH
HEAVY RAIN CORES OVER SRN PALM BEACH AND ALG THE ERN BROWARD/MIAMI
DADE BORDER. SATELLITE EST TECHNIQUES ONLY CURRENTLY SUPPORTING HLF
HR RAINFALL OF ARND .25" AND AUTOMATED 3 HR ESTS HAVE ONLY GIVEN 1.5"
AMNTS. FEEL THAT THESE AMNTS ARE GENERALLY A LITTLE TOO LOW BY ABOUT HALF.
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FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WHILE CURRENT TREND IS FOR
WEAKENING...FEEL THAT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONT AND NUDGE
A BIT FURTHER S ALG THE COAST AS MOIST UNSTABLE AMS CONTS OVER THE RGN.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2731 8085 2704 7932 2453 7972 2494 8144
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