ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/27/07 2039Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 2032Z
.
LOCATION...SW PENNSYLVANIA...W MARYLAND...WEST VIRGINIA...
.
RESENT TO INCLUDE EVENT TITLE
.
ATTN WFOS...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
ATTN RFCS...MARFC...OHRFC...
.
EVENT...TRAINING OF TSTORMS NEXT FEW HRS POSSIBLE
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...COLD FRNT IS SITUATED ALONG THE WV/OH
BORDER INTO NW PA AND AHEAD OF THIS BNDRY..NUMEROUS SEGMENTED LINES
OF CNVTN HAVE FORMED ALONG AND JUST W OF THE RIDGE OF THE APPALACHIANS
STRETCHING FROM SRN WV INTO SW PA. MCIDAS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THIS AREA IS WITHIN THE BEST AREA OF SFC MOISTURE CNVG AND IS CONFIRMED BY
A PLOT OF THE 20Z SFC WINDS. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHTER INVOF WV PANHANDLE/WRN
MD/AND SW PA SO SLOWER STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR THERE COMPARED TO
THE STORMS FARTHER S ALONG THE MTNS IN WV. THIS HAS BEEN SEEN SO FAR
WITH THE CELLS NEAR HARDY/MINERAL/HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES IN WV AND ACROSS
THE FAR WRN MD COUNTIES. ALSO PARTS OF THE WV PANHANDLE AND WRN MD
RECIEVED MOD RAINFALL YESTERDAY FROM TSTORMS SO THE GROUND IS ALREADY
SOMEWHAT MOIST. PW VALUES FROM GOES SOUNDER/GPS VALUES RANGE BETWEEN
1.25-1.5" THROUGHOUT THIS AREA AND WITH LI VALUES OF -3 TO -5 OVER AND
JUST E OF WV PANHANDLE..CAN EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL DVLPMT. ABOVE THE SFC
LAYER..STLT WINDS SHOWS GENERALLY SWRLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS MOST OF WV/WRN MD/AND SW TO NE PA WHICH AGREES WITH 12Z SOUNDING
FROM LWX. BECAUSE OF THIS CELL MOVEMENT SHOULD HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
TRAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF THESE STATES AND ACCUMULATE
ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2.5" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
CELLS REPEAT MOST FREQUENTLY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. HIGHER FFG TO THE
E AND NE SHOULD PREVENT THE FF THREAT FROM SPREADING TOO FAR OUT OF ITS
CURRENT AREA THOUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 4063 7910 4026 7690 3741 8097 3805 8207
.
NNNN