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SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/27/07 0630Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST:0600Z  JS
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LOCATION...WESTERN KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
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ATTN WFOS...PAH...LSX...SGF...
ATTN RFCS...OHRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH TRAINING CELLS ALONG BACK END OF AREA OF
CONVECTION CENTERED OVER SE MO.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...EARLIER SPENES MESSAGE (02Z) REFERRED
TO JET DYNAMICS AS ONE OF THE MECHANISMS FOR SUSTAINING CONVECTION AND
THIS CERTAINLY CONTINUES TO BE THE CASE AS ACTIVITY IS WELL POSITIONED
NEAR LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM AROUND MO/IL TO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. ANALYSIS OF GOES SOUNDER AND GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER
DATA INDICATES PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS S MO/S IL WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1.5" TO NEARLY 1.8"
VALUES DEPICTED. PROFILERS AND RUC ANALYSIS/SHORT TERM FORECAST SHOW
RELATIVELY WEAK BUT STILL FOCUSED SW LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE CONVECTION
WITH RECENT (06Z) SE MO PROFILER SITE SHOWING AN INCREASE TO 25KTS OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW DIRECTED INTO THE ACTIVITY. LOOKING AT GOES-WEST IMAGERY
DURING GOES-EAST ECLIPSE PERIOD, HAVE NOTED SOME DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE
SHAPE TO THE BACK END OF THE CONVECTION AS REDEVELOPMENT OF CELLS AND CELL
TRAINING SITUATION SET UP. SOME CLOUD TOP COOLING WAS ALSO NOTED WITH
BRINGS SATELLITE ESTIMATED RAIN RATES UP TO AT LEAST 1.5"-1.75"/HR WITH
THE STRONGER CORES. AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS INDICATE 2.5"-3.5" ALONG APPROXIMATE AXIS FROM REYNOLDS/CARTER TO
WAYNE COUNTIES. LATEST RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP DOES NOW APPEAR TO SHOW THE
STRONGEST CELLS MOVING TO THE ESE AND OUT OF WAYNE COUNTY ALTHOUGH SOME
LINGERING CELLS STILL ARE BACK TO THE WEST. WILL NEED TO GET A BETTER
LOOK AT THINGS FROM A SATELLITE PERSPECTIVE (BETTER VIEWING ANGLE) ONCE
GOES-EAST COMES OUT OF ECLIPSE PERIOD AND WILL SEND ADDITIONAL MESSAGES
IF HEAVY RAIN THREAT STILL EXISTS AT THAT TIME.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3762 8766 3681 8779 3672 9178 3754 9177
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