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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/26/07 0055Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G12 0030Z
NOAA AMSU:  2113Z

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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...
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EVENT...NEW AREA OF TSTMS DEVELOPING TO E AND SE OF ST CROIX
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...A NEW AREA OF TSTMS HAS FORMED N OF
EARLIER CORE OF HVY TSTMS WHICH DISSIPATED EARLIER THIS EVE. THE NEW
AREA OF TSTMS..ASSOCD WITH TROPICAL WAVE..ARE LOCATED TO THE E AND
SE OF ST CROIX..WITH THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF CELLS TO THE SE. THE
NEWLY FORMED CNVTN HAS BEEN EXPANDING TOWARD THE W AND NW. ALTHOUGH
GOES WV IMAGERY ANIMATION AND LATEST HIGH LEVEL GOES WIND PLOTS SHOW
STILL SOME SW/WRLY FLOW ALOFT W OF/INVOF ST CROIX..IT DOES APPEAR AS IF
THE UPPR FLOW HAS BEEN WEAKENING. VECTORS AT 250MB ARE NOW ONLY AROUND
10-15 KTS. THUS..SHEAR IS NOW BECOMING LESS OF A FACTOR COMPARED TO
EARLIER..WHEN THE STRONGER SHEAR RESULTED IN DECAY OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
S OF 17N.
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THE WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR EFFECT MENTIONED WILL NOW ALLOW NEW CNVTN E
AND SE OF ST CROIX TO PROGRESS TWD THE NW AND W. IN FACT..UPPR LVL GOES
STLT WINDS SHOW SOME S AND SERLY FLOW TO THE E AND SE OF ST CROIX..WHICH
ALSO SUPPORTS FURTHER MOVEMENT OF CNVTN TWD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A LOOK AT
THE LATEST AMSU PW PASS SHOWS CORE OF PW PLUME WITH VALUES OF 2-2.3"PLUS
STILL TO THE E..AND MOVING WWD. AS FOR RAIN RATES  ..ATTM AUTOMATED STLT
EST INDICATE RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR WITH THE HEAVIEST STMS APPX
30 MI SE OF ST CROIX. ALTHOUGH SOME HVY CELLS COULD AFFECT THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT..WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED FOR TWD/OR DURING WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHEN MAIN CORE OF CNVTN COULD INCR FURTHER..AND PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD HVY RAIN.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 1917 6713 1893 6264 1647 6192 1696 6770
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