ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/25/07 2059Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G12  2045Z   CK
NOAA AMSU: 1728Z
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...
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EVENT...TROPICAL WAVE SE/E OF VIRGIN ISLANDS..CNVTN WEAKENING
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IMPRESSIVE AREA OF CNVTN SE OF VIRGIN
ISLANDS..ASSOCD WITH TROPICAL WAVE/LOW..HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED FM MID -70S C TO LOW
-60S C. ATTM THE HEAVIEST CNVTN IS S OF 16.5N BTWN 63W AND 64.5W AND E
OF 65W..WITH MOSTLY CIRRUS AND MID CLOUD TO THE N. WHILE THE TOPS HAVE
BEEN WARMING..THERE HAS ALSO BEEN EROSION ON THE WRN EDGE. PRIOR TO THE
RECENT DECR..AUTOMATED STLT ESTIMATES INDICATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE BTWN
4-6" FOR THE 6 HR PERIOD ENDING 2015Z.THE WARMING AND EROSION IS DUE TO
SHEARING PER HIGH LEVEL WRLY FLOW OVER THE CNVTN. THUS..DESPITE LL ERLY
FLOW..THE HIGHER LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD ANY STRONG CNVTN FROM SPREADING
TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE SHORT TERM. WRLY FLOW IS ALSO PREVENTING
BANDS OF CNVTN E OF 63W BTWN 18N TO 25N..ASSOCD WITH TROPICAL WAVE..FM
MAKING ANY WWD PROGRESS AS WELL.
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AMSU IMAGERY ANIMATION DOES SHOW BAND OF 2"PLUS PW'S CONTINUING
TO PROGRESS WWD..WITH THE LEADING EDGE AT 1728Z OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THUS..ANY SLACKENING OF UPPR WRLY FLOW COULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR
HEAVY CVTN TO SPREAD TWD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. BUT AGAIN..DO NOT SEE THAT
OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS..AND PROBABLY NOT FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HRS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 1971 6801 1927 6279 1597 6347 1528 6770
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