ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/22/07 2350Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST:2330Z  JS
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LOCATION...ARIZONA/SOUTHERN UTAH
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ATTN WFOS...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...
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EVENT...TRAINING CELLS MOST INTENSE RIGHT NOW IN CENT AZ. ALSO WATCHING
MORE CELLS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OVER S AZ WHICH MAY INTENSIFY AND
ADD TO TRAINING ACROSS CENT AZ.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BEST ENHANCEMENT RIGHT NOW EXISTS WITH
CLUSTER OF STORMS CENTERED AROUND BORDER OF YAVAPAI/COCONINO/GILA
COUNTIES WHERE SATELLITE ESTIMATED RATES ARE IN THE 1.0-1.5"/HR
RANGE. WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS ACTUALLY APPEAR TO BE MOVING ALONG
AT A GOOD PACE, THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH CELL TRAINING FOR MANUALLY
DERIVED SATELLITE ESTIMATES TO REACH 1.0" TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 2.0"
IN A 2 HOUR PERIOD FOR SEVERAL SPOTS IN CENT AZ INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
YAVAPAI/COCONINO/GILA/MARICOPA/PINAL COUNTIES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THROUGH 2330Z SHOWS ANOTHER IMPULSE/SPEED MAX IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM
SPREADING UP ACROSS NW MEXICO INTO S AZ. THIS IS DENOTED BY FAST MOVING
CIRRUS ELEMENTS MOVING INTO SW AZ AND CIRRUS BLOWOFF TO THE NORTH OF
TS IVO SURGING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AS WELL. PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THIS
HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN NW MEXICO/S AZ WHICH
APPEARS TO BE IN LINE TO MOVE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY TRAIN OVER SOME
OF THE SAME SPOTS IN CENT AZ WHICH ARE CURRENTLY RECEIVING LOCALLY
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS AS SOUTHERLY MEAN FLOW IS VIRTUALLY PARALLEL
TO ORIENTATION OF LARGER BAND AFFECTING AZ/UT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE ENE OR NE ACROSS CA
BUT RECENT NORTH-SOUTH ELONGATION OF UPPER LOW DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS ALLOWED FOR A SLOWER OVERALL
MOVEMENT TO THE PRIMARY BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS HAS ALSO LED TO
LONGER DURATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AFFECTING N AZ AND S UT
WITH BACK EDGE FINALLY JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF IRON/WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK NOW
SHOWING SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH ESPECIALLY AROUND EASTERN KANE AND EASTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES WITH
RATES ESTIMATED NEAR OR JUST OVER 1"/HR. WITH MORE POTENTIALLY TO COME
NORTHWARD FROM AZ, EXPECT HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO ALSO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR SOUTHERN UTAH.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3835 11028 3133 11012 3143 11263 3827 11284
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