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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/22/07 1925Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST:1900Z  JS
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LOCATION...CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ARIZONA/SOUTHERN UTAH
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ATTN WFOS...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...
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EVENT...BAND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST RESULTING IN TRAINING OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CELLS FOR AT LEAST A 1-2 HOUR
PERIOD OF TIME.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MANUAL ADJUSTMENT TO AUTOMATED SATELLITE
ESTIMATES FOR THE PAST 2-3 HOURS YIELDS ESTIMATED RAIN TOTALS MAINLY IN
THE 1.0"-1.5" RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
YAVAPAI/EXTREME NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY OF W CENT AZ TO E IRON/W
GARFIELD COUNTIES OF SW UTAH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK INDICATES THE PORTION OF THE BAND OVER AZ IS
MORE CONVECTIVE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TOWARD HIGHER RAIN RATES OF GREATER
THAN 1"/HR LOCALLY. SOME TRAINING OF THESE TYPE OF CELLS PARTICULARLY
FROM FAR N MARICOPA INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY COULD EASILY LEAD TO 2" IN A 1-2
HOUR PERIOD OF TIME. TRENDS THROUGH 1915Z SHOW CELL TRAINING CONTINUING
FROM MARICOPA INTO YAVAPAI WITH CELLS LOOKING MORE WELL DEFINED SO
RATES COULD EVEN BE APPROACHING 1.5"/HR IN ISOLATED SPOTS. ALSO THE CU
FIELD IS EXPANDING AND ENHANCING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS
MORE CONVECTIVE CELLS LIKELY FORM OVER CENT TO E MARICOPA AND EVEN INTO
PORTIONS OF W PINAL/W AND CENT GILA COUNTIES.
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FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THE LACK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND SMOOTHER TEXTURE TO THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A BIT LOWER RAIN
RATES BUT AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STEADIER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN OVER AZ WHICH IMPLIES AT LEAST A 2 HOUR PLUS PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR W GARFIELD/W KANE COUNTIES. BELIEVE THAT
TOTALS OF AT LEAST 1" IF NOT LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TO 1.5" ARE LIKELY
FOR THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY ANOTHER BAND BACK TO THE EAST APPEARS
TO BE ENHANCING FROM N MOHAVE(AZ) INTO WASHINGTON(UT)/IRON(UT) COUNTIES
WHICH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS BACK INTO SPOTS SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST WHICH JUST RECEIVED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS.
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OVERALL SITUATION SHOWS UPPER LOW CLOSE TO CENT CA COAST MOVING SLOWLY
INLAND TO THE NE WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME DRAWING MOISTURE FROM
E PAC AND ENVIRONMENT AROUND TS IVO NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST. FLOW
AROUND UPPER LOW AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS ALSO CREATED VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. GOES SOUNDER
DATA ALONG WITH GPS PW DATA INDICATE PW VALUES IN THE 1.2" TO 1.4"
RANGE ACROSS SW TO CENT AZ WITH SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTING DEWPOINT MAX
POOLED ACROSS S CENT AZ WITH LOW TO MID 60S PRESENT SUPPLYING MORE THAN
ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR BAND/CELLS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF AZ/UT.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3823 11202 3319 11193 3320 11367 3820 11373
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